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Neo-conservatives do not typify US,

 Luc Debieuvre


Gulf News, Paris |   | 29-05-2003


Where is America? The question may sound odd to all those who rightfully are witnessing the implementation of the Pax Americana in the region and, to start with, in Iraq: a State Department official appointed as a Civil Administrator, a retired American General looking after "small business between friends", another American supervising the future oil policy of the country, an American company chosen to implement a new TV channel, not to forget the American crony Chalabi who should build up a 20-year  career opponent in just a few months time.

As the American blueprint put it, next talk of the  town in Iraq will match with free market, privatisation, electronic stock market trading, tax overhaul.

The U.S. Agency for International Development is on the verge to award a $70 million contract to Bearing Point Inc. for part of the work, no bidding of course, and other  friends are joining soon. Elsewhere in the region or, even, wherever in the world since Richard Perle's magic words "we will not stop there; we shall continue through all means to fight against the countries who host terrorists or develop MDW's", a "new strategic dynamic" is taking place.

Syria was warned: it is no more "I put a spell on you" but "We'll keep an eye on you"; Big Brother is looking after everything, from the nine identified Palestinian organisations whose offices in Damascus should be shut down, to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the implementation of the roadmap.

The Golan Heights was not mentioned, but it should only be a missing element. Secretary of State Colin Powell has just completed a tour in the region with so much apparent strength and imperial willingness, however, that the day the U.S. Ambassador in Israel remitted the roadmap to Sharon, another U.S. official, Elliot Abrams, was holding private talks with him in order to assure him that he would never face any pressure from the U.S. over it.

Indeed, hasn't time come to start wondering whether the new giant has not become something of a paper tiger? Beyond what the Financial Times calls "the immediate incompetence of Rumsfeld who is making a mess of the peace", total chaos which now seems to prevail in Iraq is a first illustrative example. "One major conclusion one may draw from that war is that it is possible to make a totalitarian regime collapse without inflicting severe damages to a country", wrote Perle. He probably could not visit Iraq recently nor look at TV reports.

Even Baker acknowledges that "the looting was regrettable, but fully consistent with the experience of other people adjusting to the shock of liberation". That is something to say to the families whose children are put into pieces by fragmentation bombs which the U.S. army "did not have time to collect". Baghdad has become a town where one should better assume his own protection: looting, thefts, threats are now common practice; health diseases are growing elsewhere as in Basra, water is missing.

The American army was able to isolate and demolish a weakened regime but when the country collapsed into chaos, they stood-by or worse, shot aside or killed half-perceived threats. In the meantime, Shia influence is investing health, education, welfare and infrastructure fields in a growing manner. "U.S. victory in Iraq war could benefit Islamists" wrote the Wall Street Journal. Indeed, Muslim Brotherhood Group is among those on the rise; was that America's plan?

Actually, the situation is not precisely better elsewhere. Not to mention the likely consequences of the war on both economic and political grounds in Jordan, Egypt or Turkey, how not to react to insane comments heard from would-be analysts – actually wishful-thinkers – about the fake threat of possible acts of terrorism due to the war?

Ninety people dead in Saudi Arabia last week; 30 or so in Morocco this week, and others in Israel and Occupied Palestine. Bush thought that leading a war in Iraq to make WMD disappear would put an end to terrorism. He was obviously wrong. Not because no WMD could be found todate, but simply because one does not need a mass destruction weapon to bomb a café. Even a World Bank chairman, Wolfensohn, admits that "One may witness that aggression, war and the lack of hope provoke a hate which can lead to terrorism".

Indeed, how would any human being react to the words of an Israeli general, Israel's Defence Forces Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon: "The aim is to lead Palestine to internalise in the deepest recesses of their consciousness that they are a defeated people". Here is inserting the roadmap saga, precise content of which is in fact of limited interest, as is the emerging dialectic between those who doubt that it may ever succeed – namely a growing number of Arab States – and those who will never accept it; or with so many conditions that would deprive it from any substance  – namely the Sharon camp.

The only valuable issue, actually, is to know who has the power to bring the Israelis to the negotiation table; and the answer is the U.S. But is this what the Bush administration wants to do 18 months before the president runs for re-election?

When the dice are loaded, there are two ways to behave. One is to leave the game, as some Palestinian organisations immediately put it. But isn't a bothering element for consideration that the two clearly opposed parties to the roadmap are both the Hamas and the organisations supporting Jews living in Israeli colonies build in occupied Palestine.

Another way is to behave properly and not be reproached by anything. As long as Mahmoud Abbas avoids the risk to be cornered into a hopeless bilateral negotiation restricted to Israel and Palestine, and as long as he understands that a future to the roadmap only lies with the U.S. and the other members of the Quartet's hands, everything should be made to give peace a fair chance, irrespective of what the Sharon government may say, do or undo. No time is to be lost elsewhere.

A first move on the Palestinian side was to have another figure emerge who, although still representative of his people, will be better accepted by the Ameri-cans. That has been done, incidentally thanks to Arafat who finally permitted it.

Another move could come from Syria. Because, among Arab countries, it expressed a courageous view about the U.S. pre-emptive ideological war in Iraq, Soon after the war Syria became a favourite target of the Washington neo-conservatives. The role it was playing with some Islamist terrorist groups was a major obstacle to any solution in Occupied Palestine, and crushing the Syrian regime was thus the only way to finalise the roadmap positively. Syria reacted swiftly, but it is likely that much remains to be done even though, as Kissinger used to say, "Peace cannot be done without Syria".

Syria stands at a geographical crossroads. For some reasons, it has shelved some Palestinian extremist organisations, which also means it may have a kind of control over them, and it is smart enough to find the appropriate ways to favour the peace way to the roadmap targets within the frame of a regional settlement.

Syria understood it in  the past when it started to evacuate its army from Lebanon. Going on would be a clear signal to the international community that it is a serious partner.

As the French Minister for Foreign Affairs Villepin said, "In the context of a global Middle East peace, we call on Syria to do everything possible to facilitate the application of the roadmap and Israel to accept to negotiate over a return of the Golan Heights to Syria".

Irrespective of any future relationship between Lebanon and Syria which is obviously dictated by some basic geographical considerations, rewards could be there.If nothing concrete materialises on the Israeli side, at least the Arab world will be able to stand proudly with the sense of duty done. It will then be to Bush to put his action in accordance with his words.

It is true that one may expect little from a group of people such as Richard Perle, Michael Ledeen, James Wolsey, all members of the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs, who once declared "Our only concern is Israel".

But in same way as the Likud is not Israel, the neo-conservatives are not the U.S. It is up to them to accept the idea that the "strategic new dynamic" is not a one-way concept; or to become, as wrote Stephens in the Financial Times, "A power without obvious purpose, an empire without a role".


Luc Debieuvre is a French political analyst and an economic expert

 

 

 
Earth, a planet hungry for peace

 

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

 

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers in the West Bank (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

Opinions expressed in various sections are the sole responsibility of their authors and they may not represent Al-Jazeerah's.

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