|
aljazeerah.info Opinion Editorials |
|||
|
Human Price of the Israeli Occupation of Palestine Israeli daily aggression on the Palestinian people Mission and meaning of Al-Jazeerah Cities, localities, and tourist attractions
|
|
And then the bombs rained down Sigmund Signatuur, Jordan Times, 3/28/03
I DID not really want to write about the invasion of Iraq, but what else is there to consider, even though I probably have no new illuminating thoughts about this appallingly desperate and depressing subject any more than you have. It is pretty obvious (a bit like saying that a triangle has three sides) to suggest that there has been a mood change. I thought that I might be somewhat oblivious to this depression, but late Wednesday afternoon, even before the first missile attack, the “black dog” (as Churchill put it) started sitting on my shoulder. The “black dog” is a type of melancholia. Prior to last Thursday, it was (as Churchill would describe it) still “jaw jaw and not war war”. We were trying to understand motives, legality and the role of the UN. Suddenly it was Tomahawk time. Many of my expatriate friends have been evacuated out of Jordan and routines have been changed, so as not to be a target of any pent-up aggression. Since the war started, I have virtually been a prisoner in my house. I am not complaining so much about that and I know it is “small potatoes” compared to what many people have suffered and are going to suffer in the theatre of war and also to the innocent people who will be caught up in this unnecessary conflict. While I can watch the BBC's 24-hour, 7-day-a-week coverage, I would rather not. Not that I find the BBC's coverage full of jingoism, because it is patently not. It has a reputation for high class international news reporting and does not want to lose this reputation. No, I just find the whole thing so disquieting. After all, there are just wars that simply have to be fought. World War II cost 53 million lives and needed to be fought. This war will cost lives, but thankfully not 53 million. I must tell local readers that I have not met one Westerner residing in Amman who approves of this conflict. Some people whose positions require it, at least publicly, have to say it is a just war, but privately think something else. I cannot and will not be saying that I thought Saddam Hussein's regime will go down in history as a golden memory of Arab politics, but at the same time, we have to ask ourselves whether the war which will cost the American taxpayer $75 billion, will make the American foreign policy even more hated in the Arab world than it is now (with Britain aiming in the same direction), the Iraqi people being further wasted and a situation that will lead to guerrilla warfare and will probably last years and years is justified. Colin Powell must be deluding himself when he says that an allied victory will change Arab positions vis-ý-vis the Israeli-Palestinian debacle and make the probability of peace more certain. If indeed the Americans/British/Australians remove the present regime in Baghdad, it will, in many senses, be a pyrrhic victory. First, Iraq has had little to do with the unfolding tragedy of the Palestinians and really does not play a major role in such diplomatic plans. The roadmap cannot go forward while this present conflict continues. It stands little chance of going forward anyway with Ariel Sharon at the helm of the Knesset, but Iraq will, beyond doubt, bury the map. One always assumes that many of the advisors in the White House are the elite coming from Ivy League universities — and indeed they are — but such thinking as this is extremely wrong footed and basic and once more is doomed to be unsuccessful. I heard a distinguished Jordanian political analyst describe how Saddam's popularity in taking on the opposition has soared. Previously, many educated Arabs had reservations about the regime in Baghdad, but now ranks have closed and any, and I repeat any, idea that the coalition forces are receiving a setback is greeted with glee. If you live in the West, it is hard to see such things; if you live here, it is more readily understandable. In a fairly futile gesture in the Gulf War, Scud missiles were fired at Israel by the Iraqi military. They caused little damage, but many Arabs cheered this move of defiance. I suppose this is best understood in the way it was portrayed to me by a British subject. She said: “Look, I really don't have much time for Tony Blair, but if the Iraqis were going to invade Wales, then I would be firmly behind him.” I think this is an accurate analogy. The US government fails to understand this Arab attitude that exists in some regions. Or perhaps it doesn't and just continues to ignore it. Donald Rumsfeld made a telling remark a day or two ago. He said that this was the end of the beginning. He may have been confused about what he actually said, but I think not. How I understand this goes something along these lines: if the coalition prevails, then, as a freshly elected president of the US said, “what do I do now?”. It is obvious that there is no one to hand government over to in the short run, and there is not going to be a fresh army just waiting to serve this imaginary new government, so the coalition forces remain. This will lead to the understanding (and already has) that these are not liberators but oppressors. Then guerrilla warfare will start. These troops will now be stuck in urban warfare and the Cruise missile attacks will no longer be relevant. The guy with a knife who comes out of a side alley in the hours of darkness and rips open your entrails owes nothing to an Apache gunship. So this operation cannot be clinical. It will be messy in the extreme. While I find the whole scenario depressing, I find the charade and the posturing even more frustrating. I guessed (and I have no great political insight) that Hans Blix and his team could never succeed. If Blix and co. had found a “smoking gun”, it would have been war. When Blix couldn't find worrying weapons, it amounted to the same. Heads you lose, tails you lose. Blix had repeatedly said they were making progress. You almost felt as though Washington thought that Blix was working for the Baath Party. As McCarthy would have said, “he was soft on communism” (for communism read Baathism). He was doomed to failure because regime change was considered necessary. The Iraqis suffer from the disaster that overtook America on Sept. 11.
Opinions expressed in various sections are the sole responsibility of their authors and they may not represent Al-Jazeerah's.
|