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War becomes bloodier, less certain, maybe longer By Douglas Hamilton DOHA — The Iraq war is becoming a bloodier, less certain and possibly longer gamble than first advertised. The American and British leaders and generals running it say it is going exactly according to plan. The central strategy remains to decapitate the regime at Baghdad and let resistance in the rear wither away. There is no call to be fazed by pictures of skirmishes with irregular forces, they insist. “We think the toughest fighting is ahead of us and we have known that all along and we are preparing for that,” America's top soldier, US Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Air Force Gen. Richard Myers, said on Tuesday. But their assurances seem to be falling short. The prediction had been that Iraqis would not fight back; promises that “the outcome is not in doubt” gave a new rhetorical hostage to fortune that could yet haunt the White House. A rally on Wall Street came to a screeching halt on Monday with the biggest slide in stock prices of the year after a weekend of high-profile setbacks punctured optimism. Investors fear that if President Saddam Hussein's core forces do not give up as hoped, Baghdad may become a city under siege for weeks and perhaps months, deepening world uncertainty. Iraqs's second city Basra earned enemy city status on Tuesday, in a change of script. It was meant to be “liberated.” Beyond the bombing of Kirkuk and Mosul and classified special forces operations, the northern front armoured thrust to the capital that the United States hoped for does not exist. Overall commander of joint invasion forces Gen. Tommy Franks says he has forces in places we do not yet know about. “We'll fight this on our terms,” he insists. 'Dead-enders' exploit chinks in US armour US forces smashed across the Euphrates River, leaving the city of Nassiriya to Iraqi units, to be “cleaned up” later. A blinding sandstorm slowed their northward advance. But unlike the 1991 Gulf War, there was no giant pall of burning oil well smoke to cripple their night-vision advantage. Also unlike 1991, when Saddam issued a general retreat after only 49 hours of land war, Iraq's morale seemed high as the invasion slowed from a fast desert drive to a combat offensive. “Their dreams of a short and easy war have started to evaporate and their hopes of defeating the Iraqi people are being destroyed,” said an Iraqi military spokesman. British Prime Minister Tony Blair was to see President George W. Bush in mid-week ahead of what he called “a crucial moment” when the US 5th Corps meets Saddam's Republican Guard Medina Division at the “red line,” south of the capital. “I think Blair feels he needs this consultation,” a British official in London said. Britain has lost 19 killed in five days, compared with 24 in the seven-week-long 1991 Gulf War. The unofficial US death toll is 14, with 12 missing. Iraq reports at least 62 of its soldiers and 84 civilians killed. In the Gulf War, allied airpower pounded Iraqi units in Kuwait for 38 days before the tanks went in to take surrenders by the tens of thousands — men with rusty guns, little food, and low morale, some in sneakers, loafers and flip-flops. Nothing like that has happened this time. The tanks went in a day after the war began to find no big divisions waiting in the open. They had all been pulled back for the showdown at Baghdad. Political analysts said Americans may tolerate a long, bloody war because of continuing anger over the deadly Sept. 11 attacks, (which Iraq has nothing to do with), provided they believe in its strategic and moral purpose and accept they were fully warned about the human cost. One analyst put the casualty figure at which the public would become uncomfortable somewhere between the 148 US troops killed in the 1991 Gulf War and the 3,000 killed on September 11. General Franks said on Monday that “pro-Saddam dead-enders” put up fierce firefights but called their resistance “sporadic.” British Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon dismissed it as “patchy.” Reinforcements needed? But military analysts say the dash to Baghdad is leaving behind dangerous enemy fighters and chaos in urban areas. They fear Franks may be taking undue risks by stretching supply lines for an invasion force simply too small to fight and occupy urban areas in the rear at the same time. “The force is so light that it probably has the lowest ratio to enemy forces of any major ground campaign we've fielded in the last century,” said US analyst Loren Thompson. Joint-force commanders say there's no panic despite some unexpected “pockets” of resistance. The plan is being adapted, they say. Air power will now move to “targets of opportunity” and close-air support for advancing ground troops. This may be far more difficult than hitting fixed strategic targets, involving lower altitude flying and risky “loitering.” “Shaping the battlespace,” said Lt. Col Ronnie McCourt, a British spokesman at Central Command in Qatar, “means taking the battle to the enemy in the time and place of our choosing.” TV images of “skirmishes” from media “embedded” with joint forces in a Pentagon innovation exaggerated their severity.
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