Glenn Kessler 

 The Washington Post

Arab News

WASHINGTON, 29 June 2003 — Israel’s agreement to withdraw forces from the Gaza Strip and turn over security to the Palestinian Authority, made after intense US pressure on the eve of National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice’s trip to the region, is an enormous gamble that could backfire and leave the new peace effort in tatters, diplomats involved in the effort said.

Officials close to the talks said they are unsure if the Palestinian Authority has the will, inclination or capacity to confront and eventually dismantle anti-Israeli militant organizations responsible for suicide attacks, as demanded by Israel and the United States.

If the Palestinian Authority fails to take action — or if a massive suicide bombing takes place under Palestinian watch — then Israel likely will say it has no choice but to move its forces back into Gaza, dooming the US-backed peace plan.

“That is the $64,000 question,’’ an Israeli official said. “What happens if it all falls apart?’’

But US officials are eager to bolster the new Palestinian prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas, believing an easing of Israeli control will give Abbas legitimacy among Palestinians. US officials, who claim they are under no illusions about the difficult tasks ahead, also want to demonstrate there is momentum to the process launched by President Bush at a pair of summits earlier this month.

So US officials pressed both sides for an early agreement, under the theory that if they waited until they were certain the Palestinians were ready, the moment for action would have passed. “We’re optimistic but not naive,’’ one official said.

US Secretary of State Colin Powell earlier this week said a withdrawal of Israeli forces “will give the people of Gaza hope that their situation is improving.’’ He acknowledged there was “a level of risk’’ in an agreement, but added, “If Palestinians are prepared to and have the capacity to take over security in Gaza, they have tools that they can bring to it.’’

US officials have agreed to monitor the transfer of responsibilities. Israeli officials said they will give the Palestinians a “grace period’’ in which to consolidate their forces and prepare for a confrontation with terrorist organizations. In areas vacated by Israeli Defense Forces, Israelis say they are also prepared to pass information on suspected terrorist activities to the Palestinians so they can take action themselves to thwart attacks.

“Nobody expects 100 percent results,’’ an Israeli official said. But the grace period will last “weeks, not months.’’

“It is an early step,’’ Powell cautioned reporters Friday. “A lot more has to happen in the days ahead to make sure that this opportunity is not lost.’’

The ingredients for a deal on Gaza were largely available a week ago, when Powell was in the region. But in a measure of how much both sides want to curry favor with Bush, both Israelis and Palestinians suggested that they delayed completing an agreement until Rice arrived. At the summits, Bush named Rice as his personal representative on the peace plan, giving her instant clout in the region.

The Israelis have always had a direct line into the Bush White House and largely ignored the State Department. But the Palestinians view Bush’s open support of Abbas, also known as Abu Mazen, as key to his success in negotiating with the Israelis, and so they also have a reason to build their own White House connection.

The delay in a deal slightly threw off the US agenda, under which a Gaza agreement would have been announced when Powell was in Israel, and then Rice would have arrived a week later to discuss the next steps both sides could take, US officials said. American officials have privately sketched out a series of actions they hope both sides will undertake in the summer and fall, assuming the experiment in Gaza bears fruit.

One senior US official said that there was also an understanding that as long as the Palestinians confronted militants in a verifiable way, then the Israelis will continue to “do something on settlements,’’ such as take visible steps to dismantle settlement outposts.

Some outposts have been dismantled since the summits, but many have already been rebuilt, according to the Israeli group Peace Now, which monitors settlements.

The US-backed peace plan, known as the road map, calls for a freeze on settlement activity. Israeli officials said they believe they have reached a quiet understanding with White House officials under which a freeze would be defined as no new settlements, no outward expansion and no confiscation of land, but which would allow for additional building and population growth within existing settlements.

US officials say there is no explicit agreement, but they also suggest there are also hints and nods from the Israeli side that some outlying settlements might be abandoned on the grounds they cannot be easily defended, though in reality the move would be to provide contiguous borders for a provisional Palestinian state.

“It is enough to keep people hopeful but not enough to say we have a deal,’’ another US official said.