Why Sudan Plays Down Deadlock in Peace Talks Michel Sailhan

Opinion, August 2003, www.aljazeerah.info

Why Sudan Plays Down Deadlock in Peace Talks

Michel Sailhan

Arab News, Agence France Presse

CAIRO, 29 August 2003 — Khartoum is playing down the deadlock in peace talks with southern rebels in a bid to escape the blame for the continuation of Africa’s longest-running civil war and any tightening of US sanctions, analysts say. “What has so far been achieved in the peace process ... exceeds 80 percent of solving the problem,” Sudanese President Omar Al-Bashir said Wednesday.

Bashir’s adviser on the peace talks with the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) said “slight” progress had been achieved in the latest round of negotiations that wound up in Nanyuki, Kenya Saturday.

Khartoum’s positive assessment of the state of the talks contrasted with that of the negotiators on the ground who spoke only of an agreement to resume the discussions on Sept. 10.

The specter of new US sanctions is seen as the main motive behind the declared optimism of the Khartoum authorities.

An American expert on African affairs, John Pendergast, has warned that Washington is likely to punish whichever side it holds responsible for the breakdown of talks.

“The international community will not keep silent ... and the party responsible for the failure will face grave consequences,” said Pendergast, co-director of the Africa Program of the International Crisis Group, a Brussels-based think-tank, during a visit to Khartoum earlier this month.

The Sudan Peace Act, passed in October 2002, grants US President George W. Bush the authority to impose new sanctions against Khartoum and boost US aid to the rebels should the government be found to be not negotiating in good faith.

The legislation provides for six-month reviews of the peace process.

After the first review, last April, Bush said he would not slap sanctions on Khartoum because of its good-faith efforts to forge a peace deal with rebels, but called on both sides to “replace promises” with actions.

US trade sanctions are already in force against Khartoum for its alleged sponsorship of terrorism. Pendergast said Washington could also cut its ties with the SPLA if it scuppers the negotiations.

The talks between Khartoum and the SPLA are held under the auspices of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD), an east African regional grouping.

US special envoy to Sudan John Danforth warned on July 17 that “war cannot be won by either side and should be brought to a speedy end.”

Diplomats in the region see in Washington’s interest in a Sudanese peace deal a desire to participate in developing Sudan’s still largely untapped oil reserves.

Sudan produces some 300,000 barrels per day of crude from fields in the centre of the country near the front line with the SPLA but experts say it has the potential for much higher output.

The division of oil revenues with the SPLA was one of the main stumbling blocks in the latest round of peace talks which focused on how power and resources should be shared during a promised six-year period of self-rule for the south in the run-up to a referendum on independence.

The SPLA is pushing for 60 percent of oil revenues and 40 percent of government jobs during the interim period, Egypt’s official MENA news agency reported last week.

Another stumbling block came up unexpectedly when the government opposed a clause in an IGAD draft deal providing for a separate army for the south during the interim period, under the leadership of SPLA chief John Garang.

Khartoum argued that the clause paved the way for the immediate secession of the south, even though it had been a feature of a previous peace initiative, dating back to 1997. The 20-year-old conflict between the Muslim-dominated regime in Khartoum and the mainly Christian or animist SPLA is Africa’s longest-running civil war and is estimated to have killed at least 1.5 million people and displaced another four million.

A truce has been in force since October 2002 on the main frontlines between the SPLA and government forces.

A separate US-brokered cease-fire is in operation in the central Nuba mountains, but sporadic fighting has broken out in southern Blue Nile province which has a significant non-Arab population.

Earth, a planet hungry for peace

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers in the West Bank (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).