Three shaky regime changes, and counting? The Daily Star

Opinion, August 2003, www.aljazeerah.info

Three shaky regime changes, and counting?

The Daily Star, 8/26/03

In the past two years, the United States has used its military and political power to bring about some form of “regime change” in three places Afghanistan, Palestine and Iraq. The Afghanistan and Iraq changes involved wholesale removal of former regimes and their replacement with US-approved locals. The Palestinians experienced partial regime change engineered by both the USA and Israel, with the elected president, Yasser Arafat, partially replaced by the appointed prime minister, Mahmoud Abbas. What is the situation in these three lands today, and what lessons can the world draw from this novel American form of projecting its power around the world? The signs are not very good in all three places. In Palestine, the warfare on the ground has resumed in several dimensions, with bombs and bulldozers alike inflicting terrible reciprocal violence. The government of Mahmoud Abbas has not been able to respond to the demands of either the Israeli or Palestinian people and has been losing credibility. It will lose more due to the latest Israeli work on the Apartheid-vintage separation barrier dividing the West Bank and Israel because Israeli bulldozers started clearing land east of Jerusalem Monday for construction of a new segment of the wall in the Abu Dis area. The Palestinian regime that was “changed” by the American and Israeli governments looks rather shaky. In Afghanistan, the situation is equally difficult for the new regime installed with American approval and support. The Taleban seem to be making a comeback in places. Fighting throughout the country has picked up recently, and on Monday US jets bombarded Taleban guerrillas in southeastern Afghanistan, killing at least 50 of them. The security situation remains precarious, and the impact of the central government limited. The lives of ordinary Afghans have clearly improved in many ways, but in most other ways it seems that perpetual international support is required to underpin the new government. In Iraq, the security situation is also in difficult shape, with many different groups inside and beyond Iraq’s borders apparently attracted to fight the foreign occupiers and maintain a situation of danger and uncertainty. The latest changed regime seems susceptible to long-term problems and vulnerabilities at the governance level, and serious security concerns in many regions. The lessons to date are that it is easier for strong powers to change regimes in weaker states than to ensure that the new regimes will enjoy stability or legitimacy. “Three strikes and you’re out” is a baseball rule and a law in some American states. The federal government in Washington and others around the world who have supported its regime-changing policies would do well to remember this, and rethink this approach, given the thin evidence of the results to date.

Earth, a planet hungry for peace

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).

The Israeli apartheid (security) wall around Palestinian population centers in the West Bank (Ran Cohen, pmc, 5/24/03).