The Algerian Crisis: Are We Seeing the End of the Tunnel? By Arezki Daoud North Africa Journal, March 29, 2019

New protest staged by AlgerianS against extension of Bouteflika’s mandate, March 22, 2019

The Algerian political crisis appears to be deepening as we approach the fifth Friday of protest. But there are some signs that we may have reached the climax of this drama, and may soon be seeing the end of the tunnel as the situation accelerates.  On the one hand, representative of the presidency, Ramtane Lamamra has been touring foreign capitals to obtain support for Bouteflika’s plan to remain in power until a new president is elected, perhaps as the last ditch-effort to save the old house. On the other hand, all the organizations that have supported Bouteflika in his bid for a fifth term appear to be collapsing as infighting within them accelerate under an intense public shaming campaign directed at their leaders and at the organizations proper.

Lamamra visited Moscow, Rome and in his meeting with German officials on 20 March in Berlin, he reiterated the presidency’s plan to maintain Bouteflika in power indefinitely until a future president is elected following a lengthy process. 

The presidency and government position have added more fuel to the fire, deepening the crisis by widening the lack of public trust in the current regime.  The crisis is now affecting even the ruling parties that have been staunch supporters of Bouteflika’s bid for a fifth term.  Within the RND, embattled and disgraced chief Ahmed Ouyahia, who was fired as Prime Minister and did not resign (as reported), is in trouble this week after 20 members of the party’s National Council, the most important governing body in RND, demanded his departure.

Meanwhile, several top members of the ruling FLN party, including members of the governing central committee have also filed papers on 20 March to request at the country’s highest administrative court, the State Council to invalidate the FLN’s top leadership headed by Mouad Bouchareb. There are 30 well-known members who are driving the challenge, who insist that “the leadership is illegal.” In a meeting held yesterday at the FLN’s headquarters there have been violent fistfights recorded by the media.

Support for the Bouteflika presidency has drastically deteriorated this week. Stunning statements made by the spokesman of the ruling RND party during a televised interview on 19 March hint on deep resentment within the bureaucracies that have helped maintained the status quo and create the very problem we’re in. RND spokesman Seddik Chihab said there are “unstructured forces” governing the country. “These are non-constitutional, unorganized forces that are everywhere,” hinting on the president’s brothers and a group of private businessmen who have always supported the president when he needed campaign money.  Chihab added Algeria has been led by these forces for the past five to seven years.  For him, Bouteflika’s candidacy for a fifth term was a mistake. “We had lacked insight.”  But in a statement published after the televised interview, RND has sought to distance itself from Chiheb views, noting that he was tricked to respond the way he did. A statement said “our colleague was pushed towards an emotional reaction to move away from the party’s known positions.” 

Also traditionally critical to the survival and functioning of regime, labor unions and workers at sector and company levels have been withdrawing their support to Bouteflika and in favor of change, as popular pressure mounts.  The latest to have announced such decision is the state-affiliated UGTA union operating within airline carrier Air Algerie. And while calling for dialogue, the Islamic Supreme Council (Conseil Islamique Supérieur) also released a statement supporting the protest movement.

On the ground, President Bouteflika’s appointed interim leaders, Prime Minister Noureddine Bedoui, Deputy PM Lamamra and others are facing insurmountable challenges to form a government of independent technocrats.  Launched Sunday, 17 March, talks with political formations, independent organizations, NGOs and individuals have stalled as no one seems willing to join the next government. A high-level source at the Prime Ministry admits that “We made a monumental mistake by reaching out and making offers to personalities and organizations who have already rejected the president’s roadmap.”

Between 17 and 18 March, invitations for dialogue were sent to 13 autonomous unions in public health, national education and higher education. All have declined. Solicited also were several dissenting members of the employer lobby group FCE. Among those refusing to associate themselves with the regime is Hassen Khelifati, head of Alliances Assurances, who froze his membership to FCE because of its president’s staunch support to Bouteflika.

Noureddine Bedoui is also confronted with a rebelion among leading organizations such as rights groups LADDH and LADH, the Djazairouna  NGO representing families of victims of terrorism, youth group Rassemblement -Actions-Jeunesse (RAJ) and women’s associations like Tharwa Fatma N’soumer and the Wassila network. These different organizations endorsed on Monday a roadmap for democratic transition that must take place outside of the current regime. The very first of their six transition stages is the withdrawal of the current President o at the end of his term, scheduled for 27 April.

The protest movement continued as of 21 March 2019, and there have been renewed calls for mass protest for the fifth consecutive Friday (22 March).  Lawyers and magistrates are also preparing to protest in front of the headquarters of the Constitutional Council on 23 March.

So what’s ahead for the country?  There is a lot of evidence that because Bouteflika is no more physically and mentally capable of driving his agenda, the operatives of his support structure are panicking as the masses confronting them continue to swell. Think of the old, decrepit and handicapped general leading a small army to battle against a formidable enemy full of energy and positive drive. The choices of victory are very limited. Sources are even suggesting that some of the president’s supporters are selling their assets and exchanging their dinars in foreign currencies in preparation for fleeing the country. That may be true or may be just a rumor, but regardless, this type of news tends to energize the protesters, who are certainly not leaving. Judging by the stability of the parallel currency market, there is no uptick in demand for hard currency these days, an indication that there is no panic in Algeria and no mass intentions to migrate. So the people are in for the long haul.  There is also what most likely foreign governments have told Ramtane Lamamra privately: Any destabilization of Algeria would result in regional destabilization that they will not be able to contain. There will be also a spike in illegal migration to places like France, Spain and Italy. Lamamra may not have heard this concern from Russia’s Lavrov, but I am willing to bet that the Italians and the Germans have made that point. 

There is now an increasing degree of likelihood that Bouteflika will be forced out on 27 of April, when his mandate officially ends, if indeed we are seeing the end of the tunnel.  Some signs of easing are already showing within the skeleton government in charge today.  Foreign reporters are finally allowed to come in, after having been banned for months. A visa for foreign journalists would have required the approval of three departments: the foreign ministry, the communications ministry, and the intelligence services.  However, today the news is that this procedure has been eliminated, so as to simplify access. 

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Arezki Daoud is The North Africa Journal Editor and MEA Risk LLC’s Chief Executive and Lead Analyst. At the North Africa Journal Arezki oversees content development and sets the editorial policies and guidelines. Arezki is an expert on African affairs, with primary focus on the Maghreb, Sahel and Egypt. His coverage of the region spans from security and defense to industrial and economic issues. His expertise includes the energy sector and doing business in the region. At MEA Risk, Arezki overseas all aspects of the company’s development, from the research agenda to growth strategy and day-to-day business activity. Arezki brings a wealth of skills. After college, he worked for oil company Sonatrach, then held research, forecasting and consulting positions for the likes of Harvard University, IDG and IDC. Arezki can be reached at daoud@north-africa.com, at US+508-981-6937 or via Skype at arezki.daoud

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