Reasons Behind Trump's Moves on Iran, China, and North Korea By James Petras Al-Jazeerah, CCUN, May 17 2018

Reasons Trump Breaks Nuclear-Sanction Agreement with Iran
Declares Trade War with China and Meets with North Korea

Introduction

For some time, critics of President Trump’s policies have attributed them to a
mental disorder; uncontrolled manic-depression, narcissus bullying and other pathologies.
The question of Trump’s mental health raises a deeper question: why does his
pathologies take a specific political direction?

Moreover, Trump’s decisions have a political history and background, and follow
from a logic and belief in the reason and logic of imperial power.

We will examine the reason why Trump has embraced three strategic decisions
which have world-historic consequences, namely: Trump’s reneging the nuclear accord
with Iran ;Trump’s declaration of a trade war with China; and Trump’s meeting with
North Korea.

In brief we will explore the political reasons for his decisions; what he expects to
gain; and what is his game plan if he fails to secure his expected outcome and his
adversaries take reprisals.

Trump’s Strategic Framework

The underlying assumption of Trump’s strategic thinking is that ‘power works’:

the more intransigent his posture, the greater his belief in a unipolar world based on US
power. As a corollary, Trump interprets any ally, adversary, competitor who seeks
negotiations, reciprocity or concessions is ‘weak’ and should be pressured or forced to
concede greater concessions and further retreats and sacrifices, up to the ultimate goal of
surrender and submission. In other words, Trump’s politics of force only recognizes
counter-force: limitations in Trump’s policies will only result when tangible economic
and military losses and costs in US lives would undermine US imperial rule.

Reasons Why Trump Broke the Peace Accord with Iran

Trump broke the accord with Iran because the original agreement was based on
retaining US sanctions against Iran; the total dismantling of its nuclear program and
calling into question Iran’s limited role on behalf of possible allies in the Middle East.
Iran’s one-sided concessions; trading military defense for market opportunities
encouraged Trump to believe that he could intimidate Iran militarily by closing all its
markets.

Trump views President Rohani as a rug seller not a military strategist. Trump
believes that an economic squeeze will lead President Rohani to sacrifice his allies in
Syria, Lebanon (Hezbollah), Yemen (Houthi), Palestine (Hamas) and Iraq (Shia)and to
dismantle its ICBM defense strategy.

Trump pursues the strategic goal of weakening Iran and preparing a regime
change, reverting Iran into a client state – as it was prior to the 1979 revolution under the
Shah.

The second reason for Trump’s policy is to strengthen Israel’s military power in
the Middle East. The Trump regime is deeply influenced by the Zionist power
configuration (ZPC) in the US ,dubbed ‘the Lobby’.

Trump recognizes and submits to Zionist-Israeli dictates because they have
unprecedented power in the media, real estate, finance and insurance (FIRE). Trump
recognizes the ZPC’s power to buy Congressional votes, control both political parties and
secure appointments in the executive branch.

Trump is the typical authoritarian: at the throat of the weak, citizens, allies and
adversaries and on his knees before the powerful ZPC, the military and Wall Street.
Trump’s submission to Zionist power reinforces and even dictates his decision to break
the peace accord with Iran and his willingness to pressure. France, Germany, the UK and
Russia to sacrifice billion-dollar trade agreements with Iran and to pursue a policy of
pressuring Teheran to accept part of Trump’s agenda of unilateral disarmament and
isolation. Trump believes he can force the EU multi-nationals to disobey their
governments and abide by sanctions.

Reasons for Trump’s Trade War with China

Prior to Trump’s presidency, especially under President Obama, the US launched
a trade war and ‘military pivot’ to China. Obama proposed the Trans-Pacific Pact to
exclude China and directed an air and naval armada to the South China Sea. Obama
established a high-powered surveillance system in South Korea and supported war
exercises on North Korea’s border. Trump’s policy deepened and radicalized Obama’s
policies.

Trump extended Obama’s bellicose policy toward North Korea, demanding the
de-nuclearization of its defense program. President Kim of North Korea and President
Moon of South Korea reached an agreement to open negotiations toward a peace accord
ending nearly 60 years of hostility.

However, President Trump joined the conversation on the presumption that North
Korea’s peace overtures were due to his threats of war and intimidation. He insisted that
any peace settlement and end of economic sanctions would only be achieved by unilateral
nuclear disarmament, the maintenance of US forces on the peninsula and supervision by
US approved inspectors.

Trump’s unilateral declaration of a trade war against China accompanied his
belief that military threats led to North Korea’s “capitulation” – its promise to end its
nuclear program.

Trump slapped a trade tariff on over $100 billion dollars of Chinese exports in
order to reduce its trade imbalance by $200 billion over two years. He demanded China
unilaterally end industrial ‘espionage’, technological ‘theft’ (all phony accusations) and
China’s compliance monitored quarterly by the US.

Trump demanded that China not retaliate with tariffs or restrictions or face bigger
sanctions.

Trump threatened to respond to any reciprocal tariff by Beijing, with greater
tariffs, and restrictions on Chinese goods and services.

Trump’s goals seek to convert North Korea into a military satellite encroaching
on China’s northern border;and a trade war that drives China into an economic crisis.
Trump believes that as China declines as a world economic power, the US will
grow and dominate the Asian and world economy.

Trump believes a successful trade war will lead to a successful military war.
Trump believes that a submissive China, based on its isolation from the ‘dynamic’ US
market, will enhance Washington’s quest for uncontested world domination.

Trump’s Ten Erroneous Thesis

Trump’s political agenda is deeply flawed!

Breaking the nuclear agreement and imposing harsh sanctions has isolated Trump
from his European and Asian allies.

His military intervention will inflame a regional war that would destroy the Saudi
oil fields. He will force Iran to pursue a nuclear shield against US-Israeli aggression and
lead to a prolonged, costly and ultimately losing war.

Trump’s policies will unify all Iranians, liberals and nationalist, and undermine
US collaborators.

The entire Muslim world will unify forces and carry the conflict throughout Asia,
Africa and the Middle East.

Tel Aviv’s bombing will lead to counter-attacks in Israel.

Oil prices will skyrocket, financial markets will collapse, industries will go
bankrupt.

Trump’s sanctions and military aggression against Iran will lead to mutual
economic destruction.

Trump’s trade war with China will lead to the disruption of the supply chain
which sustains the US economy and especially the 500 US multi-nationals who depend
on the Chinese economy for exports to the US.

China will increase domestic consumption, diversify its markets and trading
partners and reinforce its military alliance with Russia.

China has greater resilience and capacity to overcome short-term disruption and
regain its dominant role as a global economic power house.
Wall Street will suffer a catastrophic financial collapse and send the US into a
world depression.

Trump’s negotiations with North Korea will go nowhere as long as he demands
unilateral nuclear disarmament, US military control over the peninsula and political
isolation from China.

Kim will insist on the end of sanctions, and a mutual defense treaty with China.
Kim will offer to end nuclear testing but not nuclear weapons. After Trump’s reneged
on the Iran deal, Kim will recognize that agreements with the US are not trustworthy.

Conclusion

Trump’s loud, threatening gestures are a real danger to world peace and justice.
But his assumptions about the consequences of his policy are deeply flawed. There is no
basis to think his sanctions will topple the Iranian regime; that Israel will survive
unscathed from a war with Iran: that an oil war will not undermine the US economy; that
Europe will allow its companies to be frozen out of the Iran market.

Trump’s trade war with China is dead in the water. He cannot find alternative
production sites for US multi-nationals.

He cannot freeze China out of the world market, since they have links with five
continents.

Trump cannot dominate North Korea and force it to sacrifice its sovereignty on
the basis of empty economic promises to lift sanctions.

Trump is heading for defeats on all counts. But he may take the American people
into the nuclear abyss in the process.

Epilogue

Are Trump’s threats of war part of a strategy of bluff and bombast designed to
intimidate, in order to secure political advantages? Is Trump playing the Nixon
Kissinger ‘madman’ tactic, in which the Secretary of State tells adversaries to accept his
‘reasonable’ demands or face the worst from the President? I don’t think so.

Nixon unlike Trump was not led by the nose by Israel. Nixon unlike Trump was
not led by pro-nuclear war advisers. Nixon in contrast to Trump opened the US to trade
with China and signed nuclear reduction agreements with Russia.

Nixon successfully promoted peaceful co-existence.

Trump is a master of defeats.

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