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Impossible Dialogue: The Choice in Yemen
By Ramzy Baroud
Al-Jazeerah, CCUN, December 5, 2013
Chances are dim that elections will be held in Yemen next February. Yet
without elections, the push for reforms and change that were inspired by the
Yemeni revolution would become devoid of any real value. Yemenis might find
themselves back on the street, repeating the original demands that echoed in
the country’s many impoverished cities, streets and at every corner.
It is not easy to navigate the convoluted circumstances that govern
Yemeni politics, which seem to be in a perpetual state of crisis. When
millions of Yemenis started taking to the streets on January 27, 2011, a
sense of hope prevailed that Yemen would be transferred from a country ruled
by elites, and mostly beholden to outside regional and international powers,
to a country of a different type: one that responds to the collective
aspirations of its own people. Instead, after a long stalemate that
pinned most of the country and its political representatives against former
President Ali Abdullah Saleh and his supporters, Gulf countries brokered a
power transfer deal. The deal however sidelined Saleh, but not his family
and their proponents. It is of little help that interim President
Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, who was elected to guide the transition for a
two-year period in 2012, is no revolutionary. True, he seemed sincere in his
attempt to curb Saleh’s still prevailing influence over many of the
country’s institutions, but that is hardly enough. Saleh’s supporters are
still powerful and the former ruling class is fighting back for relevance
and influence. This results from a combination of deepening poverty and a
failure to translate any of the revolution’s demands into any tangible
solution that could be felt by the country’s poor and marginalized classes.
The target of Saleh’s supporters is the Conference of National
Reconciliation (CNR). It convened on March 18 to explore common ground
between all strands of Yemeni society, draw-up a new constitution and
organize national elections. The 565 members of the conference found out
that their differences were too many to overcome. Exploiting Yemen’s
political woes, tribal and sectarian divisions, the old regime used its own
representatives at CNR, and sway over the media to derail the process.
In remarks before the Security Council, Jamal Benomar, the United Nations
envoy to Yemen, sounded the alarm to the staged comeback. A statement of his
remarks was made available to the media on Nov 28. It said that there was a
“well-funded, relentless and malicious media campaign” to undermine Hadi, so
that he either prolongs his mandate or leaves offices. “Some elements of the
former regime believe they can turn back the clock,” the envoy said. These
elements have become a “persistent source of instability.” The
dialogue itself has been extended, with little evidence that anything
concrete is on the way. What is even worse is that 85 delegates representing
south Yemen, which until 1990 was a state of its own, decided to permanently
leave the conference. The separatist movement in south Yemen has grown
massively in recent months. The country is more vulnerable than ever before.
If Hadi leaves, a political vacuum could spark another power
struggle. If he stays by extending his term in office, the dialogue is
likely to falter even more. There can be no win-win situation, at least for
now. Considering that Benomar himself played a key role in shaping
the current transitional period, his gloomy reading of the situation in
Yemen is hardly encouraging. As talks are derailed and the
prospects of a compromise are at an all-time low, the Southern separatist
movement Al-Hirak continues to gather steam. The movement grew increasingly
more relevant following the Oct 12 rallies, when tens of thousands of
Yemenis took to the streets of Eden, mostly demanding secession from the
north. What is happening in Yemen these days is in complete
contrast to the collective spirit that occupied the streets of the country
nearly three years ago. In Jan 2011, a large protest took place in the
Yemeni capital Sana’a demanding immediate reforms in the country’s corrupt
family and clan-based politics. Within a week the rest of the country joined
the initial cry for reforms. On Feb 3, both Sana’a and Eden stood united
under one banner. It was a momentous day because both cities once served as
capitals of two warring countries. The youth of Yemen were able to
fleetingly bridge a gap that neither politicians nor army generals managed
to close despite several agreements and years of bloody conflicts. However,
that collective triumph of the Yemeni people was only felt on the streets of
the country, overwhelmed by poverty and destitution, but also compelled by
hope. That sentiment was never truly translated into a clear political
victory, even after Saleh was deposed in Feb 2012. The Gulf-brokered
agreement under the auspices of the UN and other international players
stripped the revolution of its euphoria. It merely diverted from the massive
popular movement that gripped the streets for many months, allowing
politicians, representatives of tribes and other powerful elites to use the
NDC to simply achieve its own interests, be it to maintain a handle on power
– as is the case of the ruling General People’s Congress (GPC), or to ignite
old hopes of secession. The party that was closest to the collective demands
of ordinary Yemenis was the Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), representing the
opposition. However, conflict soon ensued between members of the JMP
themselves, especially between the Islamic-leaning Yemeni Congregation for
Reform (Islah) whose core supporters are based in the North, and the
secularist Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), based in the South.
Considering the mistrust in the very process that is meant to lead the
country towards permanent reforms and democracy, and in the very
representatives guiding the transition, it is no wonder that Yemen is once
more at the brink of tumult. The country’s unity, achieved in May 1990,
after bitter struggle and war between a Marxist-Leninist South Yemen, and
North Yemen, is now at risk. Equally as dangerous is that the south,
although represented by the all-encompassing Al-Hirak, hardly speaks in one
voice. Al-Hirak itself is divided and at times seems incapable of
taking one solid political stance. Following a statement in which Al-Hirak
announced that they “completely withdraw from the conference (holding) all
the parties that placed obstacles in our path responsible for this
decision,” another statement surfaced on Nov 28, also attributed to Al-Hirak
“denying the walkout and affirming that the Southern movement remains
committed to the national dialogue,” reported Asharq Al-Awsat.
Yemen’s divisions are copious and growing, allowing the old regime to find
ways to once more dominate the country. It could easily rebrand itself as
the party capable of uniting all Yemenis and saving Yemen from complete
economic collapse and disintegration. Still empowered by the spirit
of their revolution that underscored the resilience and discipline of one of
the world’s poorest nations, Yemenis might find themselves back on the
streets demanding freedom, democracy, transparency and more, demands of
which nothing has been accomplished, nearly three years on.
- Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net)
is a media consultant, an internationally-syndicated columnist and the
editor of PalestineChronicle.com. His latest book is: My Father was A
Freedom Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story (Pluto Press).
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