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Cold War in Warm Waters:
US-China's Dangerous Contest for Asia-Pacific
By Ramzy Baroud
Al-Jazeerah, CCUN, February 27, 2011
On two occasions in my life I found myself living close to the
South China Sea. The sea became my escape from life’s pressing
responsibilities. But there is no escaping the fact that the deceptively
serene waters are now also grounds for a nascent but real new cold war.
China takes the name of the sea very seriously. Its claim over
the relatively massive water body – laden with oil, natural gas and
other resources – is perhaps ‘ill-defined’, per the account of the BBC
(Nov 3, 2011), but it is also very serious. Countries such as Vietnam, the
Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei are uneasy but are caught in a bind.
China’s growing regional influence – to some, perhaps ‘encroaching
hegemony’ – is an uncontested fact of life. To challenge - or
balance - the rising Chinese power, these countries face a most difficult
choice: accepting China’s supremacy or embracing an intractable American
return to the region. The latter option is particularly worrisome
considering the US’s poor military track record throughout the
Asia-Pacific region. Frankly, there is little choice in the
matter for small, vulnerable countries. A conflict is already brewing, and
China, emboldened by astonishing economic growth as well as military
advancement, seems to be gearing up to challenge the US’s uncontested
military dominance in the region. Despite efforts to slash the
defense budget by $487 billion in the next ten years, the US sees the
Asia-Pacific region as its last major holdout outside NATO’s traditional
geographic influence. In fact, last January the Defense Department had
announced its plans to remove two of four US combat brigades stationed in
Europe. Defense Secretary Leon Panetta tried to assure US NATO allies that
the US remained committed to Europe’s security, and that the move was
merely part of a new strategy of ‘smart defense’. But the writing on the
wall was crystal clear. “If we look behind the slogan of smart
defense, I would say that at least 20 years ago all these ideas were on
the table,” according to Thomas Enders, CEO of Airbus. “So why is this
time different? It could be austerity. But...the NATO members,
particularly the Europeans will not spend more on defense for the
foreseeable future, say 10 years” (Reuters, Feb 4). Teetering at
the brink of economic depression and bankruptcy, and forced into making
unprecedented austerity decisions, the US and its NATO allies have already
crossed all sorts of uncharted territories. Panetta’s assurances will
hardly erase the comments made by Defense Secretary Robert Gates last June
foretelling a “dim, if not dismal future for the transatlantic alliance.”
However, it is very telling that despite budget cuts and the downgrading
of US military presence in Europe, the US will be shifting its focus to
the Asia-Pacific. This was the gist of President Obama’s announcement of
new military strategy last month. In his recent remarks before
the Senate Armed Service Committee, Panetta said the US planned to keep a
rotational military presence in Australia and the Philippines. However,
due to China’s growing economic might and direct sway over US’s own
economy, US officials are less daring when explaining their renewed
interests the region. The fear of China’s dominance is at the
center of US foreign policy of the Asia-Pacific region. It is a fight that
China cannot lose. For a declining empire like the US, the fight is also
central to American strategy aimed at maintaining a level of global
hegemony - especially where the US still claims few allies. On his last
Asian tour last month, Panetta was emphatic that the US return to Asia
was not a temporary political maneuver. “I want to make very clear that
the United States is going to remain a presence in the Pacific for a long
time...If anything, we're going to strengthen our presence in the
Pacific,” he said. This message had been asserted earlier, although in
different contexts, by Secretary of State Hilary Clinton and President
Obama himself. A direct confrontation remains unlikely because of
the economic interests shared by both China and the US. That said, the
symbiotic relationship is now becoming increasingly imbalanced in favor of
China. In his recent visit to the US, Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping
told business leaders that the US should not push China too far in the
Asia-Pacific region. “We hope the US will truly respect the interests and
concerns of countries in the region, including China,” he said (USA Today,
Feb 15). Compared to other visits by top Chinese leaders, Xi received less
reprimand, an indication of a shift in US diplomacy regarding China.
However, it’s worth noting that official US statements regarding the
Asia-Pacific region – often made by departments of state, commerce and
trade - are becoming increasingly fused with statements made by military
leaders, a sign of creeping danger. The South China Sea is, in
particular, a contentious issue. The US is obviously interested in the
resource-rich body for economic and strategic reasons. For China, it is
additionally a matter of national pride. The Chinese message to Western
and other companies is to stay away from areas that China sees as its
territorial waters. “We hope foreign companies do not get involved in
disputed waters for oil and gas exploration and development,” said a
foreign ministry spokesman. The race for supremacy over Asia is
being renewed, this time with China more forceful than ever. The South
China Sea is likely to emerge as major point of contention in coming
years. Leaders of adjacent countries might find themselves being forced to
choose sides in a foreseeable conflict over resources and military
presence. It was Deng Xiaoping who championed China’s economic
reforms throughout the 1980s. Then China was seen too amiable – if not
disaster-prone - to ever articulate and defend a clear foreign policy
agenda. Those days are over, and the US has taken serious note of that.
“There are challenges facing the Asia-Pacific right now that demand
America's leadership (and the 21st century will be) America's Pacific
century,” declared Hilary Clinton prior to the APEC summit in Hawaii last
November (Xinhua, Nov 19). Understandably, her comments raised
the alarm throughout Chinese media that a cold war is officially underway.
While the giants are now contending in the open, smaller and less
influential countries in the region are being exposed to all sorts of
bleak possibilities. - Ramzy Baroud (www.ramzybaroud.net)
is an internationally-syndicated columnist and the editor of
PalestineChronicle.com. His latest book is My Father Was a Freedom
Fighter: Gaza's Untold Story (Pluto Press, London).
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