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Renewed Iran Nuclear Deal Appears Closer than Ever, Despite the Final Sticking Points

CNBC, August 22, 2022

 

Iran's Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, and EU foreign chief, Josep Borell, in Tehran, July 25, 2022

 

Iran stands firm on its rights in Vienna talks

Politics

Tehran Times, August 21, 2022 - 20:49

TEHRAN –

Almost a week has passed since Iran submitted its response to a European Union proposal that was touted as a final text. The EU immediately relayed the Iranian response to Washington but the White House has kept silent since.

It’s not clear yet what the response included. But Iran said it carefully reviewed the EU text and responded in such a way as to facilitate reaching a deal in Vienna. Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has said that Iran showed much flexibility to streamline the talks and that now it’s the U.S.’s turn to respond in kind. 

“America knows very well how much flexibility we have shown, now it is the turn of the American side to be flexible. In the recent Vienna negotiations, the American side expressed its verbal flexibility on two issues. This should be in writing,” Amir Abdollahian said. 

On Sunday, President Ebrahim Raisi implied that Iran cannot show further flexibility and that it will stick to its rights in the talks in Vienna over reviving the 2015 nuclear deal, officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

“We will not neglect the rights of the nation in any meeting and negotiations. The government will try to improve the country and resolve the problems with strength. We will not tie people's living to any external factor and will diligently pursue solving the problems of the country and people,” he said, addressing the 17th World Mosque Day meeting held on Sunday morning at the Organization of Islamic Culture and Communication.

Raisi underlined that Iran is currently facing a war of wills in which the enemy must be defeated. Despite the sanctions and threats, he averred the government will continue the work seriously. “I say with belief and accurate knowledge of the capacities and capabilities that the future is bright for the country. Today, the war is a war of wills, and the Iranian nation has determined to defeat its enemies, and the Almighty God will definitely help the Iranian nation,” he continued. 

While Iran has made up its mind and did its part in the negotiations, the Biden administration seems to be torn and unable to make decisions. Since last week, the U.S. has been tight-lipped about its response to the Iranian response and continues to be cagey about the next steps that it’s willing to take. 

The Biden administration’s silence could presage its procrastination.  According to press reports, the U.S. has informed Israel that a deal with Iran is not as imminent as it is thought to be. “A deal might be closer than it was two weeks ago but the outcome remains uncertain as some gaps remain. In any case, it doesn’t seem to be imminent,” a U.S. official told Axios, describing a message the Biden administration sent to Israel to reassure the Israelis over the possible deal with Iran.   

Iran has said the U.S. response could initiate a new stage in Vienna. In his recent phone conversation with Omani Foreign Minister Badr Al-Busaidi, Amir Abdollahian underscored Iran’s goodwill and seriousness about reaching a good and lasting agreement. He said after receiving Washington’s response, if Iran is assured that it will enjoy full economic benefits from the deal and that its red lines are respected, all parties will enter a new stage in Vienna, according to the Iranian Foreign Ministry.

Iran stands firm on its rights in Vienna talks - Tehran Times

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Oil Prices Plummet as Iran Nuclear Deal Appears ‘Imminent’

Investing.com - August 21, 2022

By Ambar Warrick 

Oil prices fell sharply on Monday on reports suggesting that Iran and Western countries were close to striking a deal that would lift sanctions on crude supply from the West Asian nation. 

West Texas Intermediate futures, the U.S. crude benchmark, sank over 1% to $89.39 a barrel, while London-traded Brent oil futures fell 0.5% to $95.59 a barrel by 20:01 ET (0002 GMT). 

Qatar news organization Al Jazeera reported over the weekend that an Iran Nuclear deal was ‘imminent,’ while other reports said Tehran was ready to drop its demand that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from the U.S. State Department’s List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations.

Iran’s demand for the corps was a major sticking point for the deal, and had so far impeded negotiations with the U.S., which were facilitated by the European Union. 

The signing of a deal will see the lifting of sanctions on 17 Iranian banks and 150 economic institutions, Al Jazeera reported. Tehran will also be permitted to export 50 million barrels of oil per day in four months of signing the deal. 

The move is expected to release over 1 million barrels of oil per day of supply immediately into the market- which portends a negative reaction from oil prices. 

But this increase in supply could spur measures from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to curb production. Speculation over supply cuts had boosted oil prices late last week, although they still ended the week negative.

Concerns over slowing global economic activity dragged oil prices to six-month lows in recent weeks, as traders feared a demand crunch stemming from a recession. Signs of economic duress in major importer China have been of particular concern for oil markets. The Chinese economy is struggling to weather a series of COVID lockdowns this year, stemming from Beijing's strict zero-COVID policy. 

Still, U.S. crude inventory data last week suggested that demand was recovering from a lull in the world’s largest economy. But further tightening of monetary conditions by the Federal Reserve could quash such a recovery. 

Oil Prices Plummet as Iran Nuclear Deal Appears ‘Imminent’ (msn.com)

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A renewed Iran nuclear deal appears closer than ever. Here are the final sticking points

PUBLISHED THU, AUG 18 20221:39 AM EDTUPDATED THU, AUG 18 20227:25 AM EDT Natasha Turak@NATASHATURAK SHARE KEY POINTS

Iranian negotiating team adviser Mohammad Marandi said on Monday that “we’re closer than we’ve been before” to securing a deal and that the “remaining issues are not very difficult to resolve.” The Biden administration says it’s ready to sign a deal quickly if Iran accepts it. Three major sticking points remain, however.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (R) meets with Josep Borell, the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (L), at the foreign ministry headquarters in Iran’s capital Tehran on June 25, 2022. Atta Kenare | AFP | Getty Images

Iran appears the most optimistic it’s been in years about finally clinching an agreement on a renewed version of the 2015 nuclear deal with the U.S. and other foreign powers.

Iranian negotiating team adviser Mohammad Marandi said on Monday that “we’re closer than we’ve been before” to securing a deal and that the “remaining issues are not very difficult to resolve.” And the European Union’s “final text” proposal for the deal, submitted last week, has been approved by the U.S., which says it’s ready to quickly seal the agreement if Iran accepts it.

Still, there are obstacles to rescuing the Obama-era pact, which lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange for a range of limits on its nuclear program. Iranian negotiators responded to the EU’s proposal, pointing out the remaining issues that may yet prove impossible to reconcile.

And the stakes are high: the more time goes by, the more Iran progresses in the advancement of its nuclear technology — far beyond the scope of what the U.N.’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the 2015 deal’s original signatories say is acceptable. 

That could risk triggering an all-out war in the Middle East, as Israel has threatened military action against Iran if it develops nuclear weapons capability. 

An Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) military personnel stands guard next to two Iranian Kheibar Shekan Ballistic missiles in downtown Tehran as demonstrators wave Irans and Syrian flags during a rally commemorating the International Quds Day, also known as the Jerusalem day, on April 29, 2022. Morteza Nikoubazl | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Already in the spring of 2021, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said of Iran that “only countries making bombs are reaching this level” of nuclear enrichment. 

With a revived nuclear deal, the U.S. and the deal’s other signatories — France, the U.K., Germany, China and Russia, known collectively as the P5+1 — aim to contain the nuclear program and prevent what many warn could be a nuclear weapons crisis. Iran maintains that its aims are peaceful and that its actions fall within the country’s sovereign rights. 

Three major sticking points

Three main sticking points remain. Iran wants the Biden administration to remove its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps from its designated terrorist list, which so far Washington seems unwilling to do. 

It also wants a guarantee that the deal will be binding regardless of future U.S. administrations. Biden cannot legally guarantee that, and the reality remains that another administration could cancel any deal just as former president Donald Trump did. 

The third item is a long-running investigation by the IAEA into traces of uranium found at three of Iran’s undeclared nuclear sites several years ago. Tehran wants it shut down, something the agency itself, as well as Western governments, are opposed to.

The regime appears to have found a winning formula: widening its nuclear footprint while narrowing the inspections and monitoring regime. Behnam Ben Taleblu SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES

The U.S. didn’t seem to have much patience with Tehran’s demands, with State Department spokesperson Ned Price saying this week that “the only way to achieve a mutual return to compliance with the JCPOA is for Iran to drop further unacceptable demands that go beyond the scope of the JCPOA. We have long called these demands extraneous.”

‘Now or never situation’

In the time since Trump withdrew the U.S. from the deal in May 2018 and reimposed harsh sanctions on Iran, the Islamic Republic’s government has pushed ahead with rapid nuclear development. 

Its stockpile of enriched uranium is now at 60% enrichment, its highest ever and a huge leap from the 3.67% limit set out by the 2015 deal, formally called the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action or JCPOA.

The level required to be able to make a bomb is 90%. Commercial enrichment for energy use is between 2% and 3%. It’s also slashed IAEA access to its nuclear sites for monitoring. 

“The restoration of the deal is getting close to a now or never situation,” Hussein Ibish, a senior fellow at the Arab Gulf States in Washington, told CNBC. 

“We have little time to lose and about as plausible a framework for getting back to the 2015 deal as we are ever likely to have. So either it’s going to happen in the near future or it’s going to become increasingly difficult and of increasingly less value, at least regarding containing Iran’s nuclear ambitions.”

Much uncertainty remains – and that’s deliberately part of Iran’s strategy, said Sanam Vakil, deputy head of the Middle East North Africa program at U.K. think tank Chatham House. 

“This is the Iranians taking us down to the wire, dangling the prospect of the deal and trying to extract final concessions, guarantees from both the IAEA and the P5+1 … part and parcel of the negotiating strategy,” she said. 

“They’re both in a stalemate. And they’re both actually in a position of weakness,” Vakil said, noting the Biden administration’s concern over Iran’s nuclear capability if no deal is reached, its aim of achieving a foreign policy “win” before the November midterm elections, and Iran’s suffering economy desperately in need of sanctions relief. 

But, she added, Iran is known for its “strategic patience,” waiting out the other side until they can get the most possible concessions out of them.

No guarantee a deal will last

Meanwhile, Biden faces harsh criticism from political opponents fiercely opposed to any deal with Iran. 

“Every quest for a guarantee is just another opportunity Tehran is taking to have Washington fight among itself and attempt to offer more in exchange for less,” said Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

“Under these circumstances, the only reasons Iran might agree to a deal like the JCPOA is to repair its economic armor in advance of another change in U.S. policy after 2024.”

Indeed, many question why a deal that could be ripped up by the next U.S. administration is even worth considering for Iran.

Through this deal Iran would regain access to its foreign reserves, which are estimated to be well over 100 billion, Vakil noted. “That injection of liquidity into the Iranian economy will help in infinite ways from investment to paying government wages to supply chain challenges,” she said. “So even if this deal is a two-year deal, as many see it to be, it’s a two-year reprieve, and it stems a nuclear crisis.” 

Tehran’s moves to escalate its nuclear activity have put it in the driver’s seat for these negotiations, Ben Taleblu said. “The regime appears to have found a winning formula: widening its nuclear footprint while narrowing the inspections and monitoring regime.”

Nonetheless, both the U.S. and Iran have an interest in continuing negotiations rather than ditching them altogether, some analysts say, arguing the alternative for both parties is worse.

“Those who have argued that no deal is better than the restored JCPOA have in practice unleashed Iran’s nuclear program and failed to produce a better alternative,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group. 

“Right now, the options are either to restore a deal that would put Iran’s nuclear program in a box, acquiesce to Iran with a bomb or bomb Iran.”

A renewed Iran nuclear deal may be closer than ever, but problems remain (cnbc.com)

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