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Russia and the West Battle to Get China and India to Take Sides, But they  Remain Neutral

as of April 6, 2022

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the 2019 G-20 summit in Osaka, Japan

 

Russia and the West are battling to get China and India to take their sides in the Ukraine war

By Holly Ellyatt

CNBC, April 2, 2022

Russia and the West are both looking to persuade superpowers China and India to choose a side in the Ukraine war. The U.S., U.K. and Russia have sent delegations to India this week. The EU is holding a virtual summit with Chinese officials on Friday.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the biggest clash in decades between Moscow and the West. Both are competing to persuade some of the world’s most powerful nations, namely China and India, to take a side in the conflict.

Both Russia and the U.K. sent their foreign ministers to India on Thursday, making for a somewhat awkward diplomatic clash, with both looking to woo Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government on trade and the Ukraine war.

Ahead of the official visits, U.K. Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said her aim was to impress upon Delhi’s administration that “deeper ties between Britain and India will boost security in the Indo-Pacific and globally, and create jobs and opportunities in both countries. That matters even more in the context of Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine,” she said.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, whose visit concludes Friday, has been looking to boost trade ties and sell more oil to India as it faces widespread energy import boycotts in Europe and the United States.

One of the U.S.′ top advisors, Daleep Singh, also traveled to India on Wednesday for a two-day trip to “consult closely with counterparts on the consequences of Russia’s unjustified war against Ukraine and mitigating its impact on the global economy,” the White House said.

Western nations, which have imposed massive sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, are trying to shut off Moscow’s economic escape routes, such as those offered by the sale of oil and gas to China and India. Russia, for its part, is looking to circumnavigate sanctions through the allegiances it has built with its Asian neighbors.

Following Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, condemnation of Moscow’s aggression was almost universal. But some countries, allied with or friendly toward Russia, were more equivocal.

On March 2, 141 countries voted in favor of a U.N. General Assembly resolution deploring Russia’s invasion. Five countries — Belarus, North Korea, Eritrea, Syria and, of course, Russia — voted against it, while 35 abstained, including China and India. Further votes on other resolutions deploring the war have since taken place, with China and India maintaining their neutral stance.

India and China

Both China and India are believed to be wary about the war behind closed doors. Of particular concern to China is the uncertainty it brings to global relations and trade. India, for its part, has extensive defense ties with Russia and is an importer of Russian oil.

Analysts said both powers are hoping for a cease-fire sooner rather than later, despite President Vladimir Putin showing little signs of de-escalating the conflict.

WATCH NOW VIDEO02:36 Perception of India taking Russia’s side will be difficult to erase: Think tank

“India’s position has raised many eyebrows around the world,” Ankit Panda of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace told CNBC Thursday, “for its abstentions at the United Nations, its unwillingness to criticize Russia, and many people have cited its historic defense relationship with Russia and continued reliance on Russian defense materiel [military equipment] but it’s not a straight-forward issue.”

“I think India would favor a cease-fire and a quick termination [of the war],” he said.

He said India had planned its budgets around the price of oil being around $75 a barrel. The war has caused those prices to spike above $100, and that this was another reason India could not jettison its relationship with oil exporter Russia. Indeed, in recent weeks India has been snapping up Russian oil that’s being sold at a discount as Western buyers look to heavily reduce their energy imports from Russia.

Putin has cultivated cordial and even warm relations with the leaders of India and China, with President Xi Jinping calling Putin his “best friend” in 2019, as their relations deepened while those with the West soured. Mikhail Metzel | TASS | Getty Images

Putin has cultivated cordial relations with the leaders of India and China, with President Xi Jinping calling Putin his “best friend” in 2019, as their ties deepened while those with the West soured.

Putin reportedly promised Xi not to launch any kind of invasion of Ukraine while Beijing’s Winter Olympics were taking place earlier in February. The two leaders on Feb. 4 signed a 5,300-word statement in which they stated “that the new inter-State relations between Russia and China are superior to political and military alliances of the Cold War era” and that the friendship between the two states has “no limits.”

Beijing also sided with Moscow in calling on NATO to stop admitting new members, one of Russia’s key bugbears when it comes to Ukraine.

“This looks very much like a re-establishment of a binary world order,” Marko Papic, partner and chief strategist at Clocktower Group, told CNBC earlier this month.

“For the time being, it looks like the West has rebuilt the transatlantic relationship and China is on Russia’s side, that’s just the way that the perception in the West is,” he said, adding that China has to be careful on how it proceeds on a diplomatic level.

“China is trying to do this elaborate dance where it tries to signal to everyone that it wasn’t on Russia’s side but also it’s also not on America’s side and it just seems like that’s not enough. On the world of social media, on Twitter, you’re on one side or another really quickly, and I don’t think China wants to be cancelled.”

In response, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy in London said that Beijing is “deeply grieved by the developments in Ukraine.”

“China’s position has always been that the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected, the purposes and principles of the U.N. Charter should be observed, the legitimate security concerns of all countries should be taken into serious consideration, and international disputes should be settled peacefully,” the spokesperson added.

“China is ready to work with all parties to accommodate their legitimate and reasonable concerns and strive to resolve the Russia-Ukraine conflict and restore peace in Europe at an early date.”

Beyond the West

Putin has also cultivated a relationship with Modi, his fellow BRICS (the acronym for emerging market giants Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) leader, a relationship the West sees as a threat to the world order.

On Wednesday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg warned in the military alliance’s latest annual report that “we have entered a new era in global security, where authoritarian powers, like Russia and China, are openly contesting core principles for our security, and seeking to re-write the entire international order on which our peace and prosperity depend.” 

Worryingly for the West, Russia could look to strengthen its relationships with other neutral countries, aside from China and India.

The Economist Intelligence Unit published a report Thursday which stated that “two-thirds of the world’s population lives in neutral or Russia-leaning countries regarding the war in Ukraine.”

According to the report, while 36% of the world’s population live in countries that have actively condemned Russia and imposed sanctions on the Russian economy, including the United States, those in the EU as well as Japan, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom, “nearly one third of the world’s population lives in a country that has remained neutral so far.”

Led by India, these non-aligned states — including Brazil, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates — “will do their utmost to avoid picking sides while seeking to benefit from their apparent neutrality,” the EIU noted. Meanwhile, another 32% of the world’s population live in a country where the government has supported Russia’s actions, it said.

Commenting on the research, Agathe Demarais, the EIU’s global forecasting director, said that “in the coming years Russia (and China) will devote their efforts to courting non-aligned, neutral countries — which are mostly found in the developing world.”

“Building on other instruments, such as vaccine diplomacy, the Russian and Chinese governments will hope to forge an opposing front to the West. The eventual result will be a waning influence and gradual retreat of Western countries from much of the developing world.”

Russia and the West battle to get China and India on side in the war (cnbc.com)

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In Russia's war on Ukraine, India has remained neutral. Will it stay that way?

NPR, April 1, 20227:14 AM ET

NPR's Steve Inskeep talks to Victoria Nuland, under secretary of state for political affairs, about U.S. efforts to court India's support and avert a commitment to Russia.

A MARTINEZ, HOST:

The United States is making a bold prediction about India. Both sides in Ukraine's war have been lobbying for India's support. And a top U.S. diplomat insists that Russia will be sorely disappointed. She spoke with our co-host Steve Inskeep.

STEVE INSKEEP, BYLINE: Victoria Nuland is a veteran diplomat, undersecretary of state and one of many officials who've been traveling to India so much it's a wonder they don't bump into each other at the airport. Russia's foreign minister is visiting this week. Russian bank officials were already there. Nuland is among several British and U.S. officials all coming because India is not fully committed to either side. The world's largest democracy has become more aligned with the United States in recent years. But as Nuland knows, India buys Russian weapons and Russian oil and has not embraced Western sanctions.

VICTORIA NULAND: Well, you know, the Indian situation is a little bit unique because almost their entire ground force uses Russian weaponry. And so they are heavily dependent, and they worry about their security. So we've been engaged in an intensive conversation with them. I think that they are quite uncomfortable, particularly as they see how Russian weapons have performed and the fact that they're likely not going to be a very reliable supplier going forward. And you know, Steve, for a long time, the United States was not willing to supply weapons to India ourselves. So now that has changed. And now we are talking about how we help them make that transition.

INSKEEP: However, those weapons, those Russian weapons underline a larger truth. India has been friendly with Russia, and before that, the Soviet Union, for many decades. And that does seem clear in some of the actions they're taking or declining to take now.

NULAND: Well, Steve, I would say that one of the things that we've talked about intensively - I talked about it on my trip - is that Russia is increasingly aligned with China. So should India come into conflict with China, it can't count on Russia being in its corner - and that increasingly we are seeing the autocracies band together. And that's not where India wants to be as one of the world's largest and oldest democracies.

INSKEEP: But what did you think about when officials from the Russian central bank met officials from India's central bank to talk about mechanisms they could use to evade Western sanctions?

NULAND: We've been talking intensively to India about the importance - if they cannot join all of our sanctions, at least ensuring that Russia doesn't use India to evade them. The Indians are not going to be fooled by Russian ploys. But that doesn't stop the Russians from going all around the world for cash now. And the reason they're doing that is because our sanctions have been very crushing on their economy.

INSKEEP: A deputy national security adviser from the United States also traveled to India ahead of the Russian foreign minister's visit and warned - this is a quote which we found in the Indian media. "There are consequences to countries that actively attempt to circumvent or backfill the sanctions." What consequences are you warning India about here?

NULAND: In our conversations with India, whether it was my conversations, Daleep Singh's or Secretary Blinken's - this is not a matter of warning. It's simply a matter of reminding India that Russia will try to abuse their long-standing defense relationship to get advantages here and that it is not a good bet to help Russia out during this brutal conflict.

INSKEEP: I just want to make sure that I understand what you think is going to happen. You don't believe - is this what you're telling me? - you don't believe that India's central bank is going to go into business with some sanctions-evading mechanism with Russia's central bank. You don't believe that India is going to be that helpful to Russia? Is that what you're saying?

NULAND: I think the Russians are going to be sorely disappointed by their partnership with India, if our consultations in recent days and weeks are any example. Russia has nothing to offer India. They increasingly know that. And our partnership is far more valuable. And we are working to strengthen that.

INSKEEP: You've mentioned India's work with large democracies. They're, of course, part of this quartet of four big democracies facing China in one way or another. But the reality is that India itself, as I'm sure you know very well, has become less democratic in recent years. The media are less free. Political opposition is less tolerated than it was. Is it possible that Prime Minister Narendra Modi sees himself a little bit more like Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping than he does the West?

NULAND: You know, that is not the impression that we have. Obviously, we talk frankly to all of our partners, including India, when we have concerns about some of the issues that you raised. And we do have those concerns - and that all of us as democracies, the United States included, have to work on the places where we are not open enough, we are not free enough. And we're talking about that. But the notion that India wants to live the way China lives or live the way Russia lives - we have no indications of that. And on the contrary, I think they are looking for ways to divest themselves of this historic relationship, and they are understanding that it is a bad bet for them going forward.

INSKEEP: What is the hardest question you faced, the hardest challenge you faced from an Indian official during your visit?

NULAND: You know, I think the most difficult issue is how quickly they can be helped by the rest of us to get out of these legacy relationships, whether it's their dependency on certain kinds of oil and other energy products from Russia, whether it's their dependency for their land forces and others. You know, they want to do more with us. And this - these kinds of transitions take time. Like a lot of us, they're having to do some rebudgeting as fuel prices go up. So the question is simply, how much can we do together in this context to strengthen the democratic world, and can we do it fast enough?

INSKEEP: Given the price, as you mentioned, is India going to buy some more Russian oil, and is the United States going to have to look the other way on that one?

NULAND: So when we made the decision - and Canada did, and a number of other countries - that we would completely ban the import of Russian oil, it was relatively straightforward for us to do because we have very little exposure. But as you know, some of our other allies and partners, including allies in Europe, India, have some dependencies that it's going to take time for them to break. So we were understanding both in the German context and the Indian context, a couple of other countries, that they would need to continue to do some importing but that they needed to do it within agreed channels, and they needed to ensure that they were not stockpiling extra at this moment. And that's the understanding that we have with India, even as we work together to try to help them wean off of Russian energy.

INSKEEP: Your understanding is they're not going to stockpile extra Russian oil. Is that what you said?

NULAND: Our understanding is that they will only import at the same level that they have traditionally imported and that we will try to reduce that over the coming months and years because they are understanding that this dependence on the Russians is, again, not a good deal for India.

INSKEEP: Victoria Nuland is undersecretary of state for political affairs and one of many global officials who have recently visited India. Thanks so much.

NULAND: Thank you, Steve.

In Russia's war on Ukraine, India has remained neutral. Will it stay that way? : NPR

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