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Precursors to World War III:

US Arms to Ukraine May Lead Russia to Use Nukes, and to Deploy Nuclear Arms If Finland and Sweden Join NATO

April 16, 2022

Sunk Russian Black Sea naval flagship, photo Provided by Free Press Journal	The sunk Russian cruiser Moskva was the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet TNS, scmp

Finnish Prime Minister, Sanna Marin, met with Swedish Prime Minister, Magdalena Andersson, in Stockholm on Wednesday 13 April, 2022

 

'World War III has begun', says Kremlin state media after sinking of Russian warship Moskva

msn.com, April 15, 2022

A Russian state television media Friday declared that World War III has already started after the sinking of its naval vessel Moskva in the Ukraine war.

Moscow warned Friday it would step up missile attacks on Kyiv in response to what it said were sorties across the border, the day after its Black Sea naval flagship sank.

Olga Skabeyeva, one of Putin's top media figures in the tightly controlled state-run Russian media, bizarrely claimed that the war in Ukraine had escalated into a war against Nato.

"What it’s escalated into can safely be called World War Three. That’s entirely for sure. Now we are definitely fighting against NATO infrastructure, if not NATO itself. We need to recognise that," she said in the broadcast here that was also widely shared on the social media platform Twitter.

Another anchor Olesya Loseva, the host of Vremya Pokazhet, reportedly told viewers that the West was now supplying 'zillions of weapons' to Ukraine.

The explosions were reported to have been heard after the Russian defence ministry announced that the Moskva, the flagship of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, had sunk while being towed after being badly damaged.

While Russia's defence ministry spoke only of a fire breaking out and of exploding ammunition, Ukraine claimed it hit the Moskva with anti-ship cruise missiles and that these sparked the fire that detonated the ammunition.

Earlier in the day, the Russian Defence Ministry Friday claimed it had struck a military target on the edge of Kyiv overnight with cruise missiles and promised more strikes against the Ukrainian capital in response to Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets.

The ministry further informed that the Russian forces had also taken full control of the Ilyich Steel Plant, Ukraine’s second-largest steelmaker, in the besieged port city of Mariupol.

The defence ministry also claimed to have struck the 'Vizar' factory on the edge of the Ukrainian capital in its overnight missile strikes on Kyiv which it said made and repaired missiles, including anti-ship missiles.

(with agency inputs)

'World War III has begun', says Kremlin state media after sinking of Russian warship Moskva (msn.com)

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CIA director warns Putin's 'desperation' over Russia's failures in Ukraine could lead him to use nukes

John Haltiwanger 

Business Insider, April 15, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures during his annual news conference in Moscow, Russia, on December 20, 2018.  Alexander Zemlianichenko/Associated Press

CIA Director William Burns warned that Putin could get desperate enough to use nukes in Ukraine. "None of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons," he said. The war in Ukraine has been disastrous for the Russian military thus far.

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CIA Director William Burns on Thursday warned that the US can't "take lightly" the threat of Russian President Vladimir Putin using nuclear weapons in Ukraine. 

"Given the potential desperation of President Putin and the Russian leadership, given the setbacks that they've faced so far, militarily, none of us can take lightly the threat posed by a potential resort to tactical nuclear weapons or low-yield nuclear weapons," Burns said in remarks at Georgia Tech in Atlanta.

Since launching an unprovoked war in Ukraine in late February, Russia has struggled to make major gains on the ground. On top of failing to take Kyiv, Russia has lost thousands of soldiers and seen an astonishing number of generals killed. Russia also recently lost a missile cruiser called Moskva (named after the Russian capital) — the flagship of the Russian Black Sea fleet. 

In this context, experts have expressed grave concerns that Putin could turn to the use of weapons of mass destruction as he increasingly feels backed into a corner. Putin ordered Russia's nuclear deterrent forces on high alert a few days after launching the war. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg subsequently decried Russia for "nuclear saber-rattling." 

"We're obviously very concerned. I know President Biden is deeply concerned about avoiding a third world war, about avoiding a threshold in which, you know, nuclear conflict becomes possible," Burns, a former US ambassador to Russia, said Thursday. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a new interview with CNN's Jake Tapper published Friday said the world needs to be "ready" for the possibility of Russia deploying tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine. 

Tactical nuclear weapons are typically far less powerful than strategic nuclear weapons, and have lower explosive blasts designed for use against military positions like bunkers or port facilities. But experts warn that can make their use more appealing.

"Tactical nuclear weapons exist because each side fears it would be deterred from using its big city-razing weapons by their very destructiveness. By making nuclear weapons smaller and the targeting more precise, their use becomes more thinkable. Paradoxically, while this makes deterrence threats more credible, it also makes the arms more tempting to use first, rather than simply in retaliation," Nina Tannenwald, a political scientist at Brown University, wrote in Scientific American last month.

"Especially worrisome is the possibility that the war could escalate to the use of nuclear weapons. By increasing the alert level of Russian nuclear forces, Putin increases the risk of nuclear use through miscalculation or accident in the fog of war," Tannenwald added. "In the worst scenario, if the war is going badly, Putin could reach for a tactical nuclear weapon out of desperation."

Former US Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder in late March told Insider that the US and NATO "should help the Ukrainians, and beat the Russians" if Putin uses weapons of mass destruction, whether chemical or nuclear, in Ukraine.

"We can't stand by as Russia decides that it's going to use chemical warfare...or a nuclear weapon and say, 'That's none of our business,'" he added. 

The Biden administration has provided Ukraine with billions in military assistance, including lethal aid, but has remained firm that US troops will not be deployed to fight Russia. That said, Biden in March said the US and NATO "would respond" if Putin used chemical weapons in Ukraine, and the White House has also set up a team to develop contingency plans in the event Russia turns to weapons of mass destruction. 

In recent days, investigations were launched by the US and its allies over reports Russia used chemical weapons in the besieged port city of Mariupol. 

CIA Director: Putin Could Get Desperate Enough to Nuke Ukraine (businessinsider.com)

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Russia warns US of 'unpredictable consequences' amid latest arms shipment to Ukraine: report

Russia says US, NATO 'adding fuel' to war by supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons

By Caitlin McFall | Fox News

April 15, 2022 7:55am EDT

Russia warned the U.S. and NATO this week that there could be "unpredictable consequences" if they continue to send Ukraine "sensitive" weapons as it prepares to launch a massive ground offensive in eastern Ukraine, a report said Friday.

The Biden administration announced that another $800 million in security assistance would be sent to Ukraine Wednesday, including artillery, coastal defense drones, anti-aircraft and anti-tank armored vehicles, and Mi-17 helicopters. 

A Ukrainian multiple rocket launcher shells a Russian troop position near Luhansk in the Donbas region on Sunday. (Anatolii Stepanov/AFP via Getty Images)

Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said the defense systems approved by the U.S. are "reflective of the kind of fighting that the Ukrainians are expecting to be faced with" as Russia focuses on eastern Ukraine. 

The announcement came one month after President Biden had approved a separate $800 million arms package for Kyiv.

Russian President Vladimir Putin chairs a meeting via videoconference outside Moscow, Thursday, April 14, 2022. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

But Moscow is taking issue with the sophisticated systems that the U.S. and NATO nations are arming Ukraine with and in a diplomatic démarche this week accused the U.S. of "adding fuel" to its war, first reported the Washington Post Friday. 

The State Department did not immediately respond to Fox News' questions. 

The U.S. has provided roughly $2.7 billion in security assistance for Ukraine – $1.7 billion of which has been granted since the start of the invasion. 

A Ukrainian serviceman carries an anti-tank weapon during an exercise in the Donetsk region, eastern Ukraine, Feb. 15, 2022. (AP Photo/Vadim Ghirda, File)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has repeatedly asked that more aid be provided from allied nations more quickly as Kyiv prepares for what defense officials have warned will be an even more brutal fight in the Donbas. 

A senior U.S. defense official told reporters this week that the U.S. has been getting defensive aid to Ukraine at "unprecedented speeds" and noted that it takes just one week from the time Biden signs off on an aid package to when it gets into Ukrainian hands.

An entire delivery of an arms package takes roughly four weeks.

"I would remind [you] that we front load. Every shipment has a mix of material on board," the official said, noting that the last shipment contained surface-to-air defenses like Javelin and Stinger missiles, along with Switchblade drones armed with tank-busting warheads.

Map depicting Ukraine, Russia, Crimea, the Donbas region held by pro-Russian forces, and nearby countries. ( Ian Jopson/Fox News Digital)

After failing to take Ukraine’s capital, Russia has re-focused its war efforts on the eastern Luhansk and Donetsk regions where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting for the last eight years.

Defense officials have said they believe all of Russia’s ground forces are now in the Donbas region but warned Moscow's major offensive has yet to commence. 

Russia warns US of 'unpredictable consequences' amid latest arms shipment to Ukraine: report | Fox News

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Sinking of Moskva warship shines spotlight on Russian navy’s defensive flaws

Chinese analysts say that the missile cruiser is a big loss that will hit morale and Russia’s ability to deter US forces in the Mediterranean Ukraine says it hit the ship with two Neptune missiles while Russia insists an explosion on board caused it to sink in the Black Sea

By Amber Wang

SCMP, 16 Apr, 2022

The sinking of Russia’s Black Sea flagship the Moskva is not just a blow to morale, it also highlights the flaws in the country’s naval defensive capabilities, according to Chinese military observers.

They said that apart from the impact on the war with Ukraine, the loss of the cruiser, which was armed with anti-ship missiles, would also reduce Russia’s ability to deter US carrier fleets in the Mediterranean.

Ukraine said it had hit the cruiser with two Neptune missiles – a claim the United States has backed up – but Russia blamed an ammunition explosion on board for the damage and said it sank while being towed back to port.

US officials said the strike killed an unknown number of sailors, but Russia has not confirmed any losses and insisted the crew were evacuated to other ships.

Yue Gang, a former colonel in the People’s Liberation Army, warned against drawing hasty conclusions and said the ship had not been well-maintained over its 40 or so years in service.

“If a [Neptune] missile penetrates the deck, there will be deaths after the first explosion, but there’s no report of the death of Russian crews, and I believe Russia is unlikely to cover it up,” Yue said.

In 2018 it was taken into dock for scheduled repairs and returned to service in September 2020.

“It shows that the management is not in place, or it is possible that there were some improper operations causing the fire … ageing electrics are also possible, showing the repair of the ship is far from satisfactory,” he said.

However, if it was hit by Ukraine missiles it means that there was a big gap in its air defences, which might include faults in its radar system or operations of the crew.

“Whether it was sunk by a missile strike or by the explosion itself, it is a major loss to Russia’s naval strength,” Yue said.

The loss is also a major psychological boost for the Ukrainians, especially as the ship was previously involved in a stand-off on Snake Island which became the symbol of the country’s defiance after the small group of defenders told the Moskva “Russian warship, go f*** yourself”.

The 12,490-tonne Moskva was commissioned in 1983 under the name Slava (“Glory”) and renamed after the Russian capital in 1996.

Ukraine issued a stamp celebrating its troops’ defiant response to the ship in the early days of the war. Photo: Reuters

It was armed with 16 P-1000 Vulkan anti-ship missile launchers and described as “the most serious ship in the Black Sea” by the former chief of the Russian navy’s general staff Viktor Kravchenko.

Yue said there were few large-tonnage Russian ships left and two sister ships could not enter the Black Sea as Turkey had closed off the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits to warships from any country

“So it will be a major loss for Russian naval forces – it is silenced when it is most needed,” he said.

Li Jie, a navy analyst based in Beijing, said it was a “major loss” for the Russian navy which had reduced its ability to deter US forces.

“It had been in service for many years and was equipped with anti-ship missiles with a strong attack capability. Its main target was US carriers, so the attack capability was strong but the defence capability was weak,” Li said.

CONVERSATIONS Read more US confirms Russian warship hit by Ukraine missiles before sinking 16 Apr 2022 Will sinking of Russia’s Moskva flagship change course of Ukraine war? 16 Apr 2022 Russia ‘would deploy nuclear arms’ if Finland, Sweden join Nato 15 Apr 2022 Top picks

Amber Wang is a reporter for the China desk, and focuses on Chinese politics and diplomacy. She joined the Post in 2021, and previously worked for The New York Times and Southern Metropolis Daily.

Sinking of Moskva warship shines spotlight on Russian navy’s defensive flaws | South China Morning Post (scmp.com)

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Ukraine war: Russia ‘would deploy nuclear arms’ if Finland, Sweden join Nato

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has pushed Finland and Sweden closer to joining Nato Moscow threatened to deploy nuclear weapons in and around Baltic in response

Agence France-Presse + FOLLOW

SCMP, 14 Apr, 2022

The Russian assault on Ukraine sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in Finland and neighbouring Sweden regarding the Nordic countries’ long-held policies of military non-alignment. File photo: AFP

Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev warned Thursday that Russia would deploy nuclear weapons close to the Baltic States and Scandinavia if Finland or Sweden decide to join Nato.

Medvedev, deputy chairman of Russia’s Security Council and president from 2008 to 2012, wrote on Telegram that if the countries joined, this would more than double Russia’s land border with Nato members.

“Naturally, we will have to reinforce these borders,” he said.

“In this case, it would not be possible to talk any more about the Baltic non-nuclear status. The balance has to be restored,” he said, indicating that Russia would be entitled to deploy nuclear weapons in the region.

The former president said Russia would “seriously reinforce its group of ground forces and air defences and deploy significant naval forces in the Gulf of Finland.”

Finnish Prime Minister Sanna Marin, left, welcomes her Swedish counterpart Magdalena Andersson at the Prime Minister’s official residence Kesaranta in Helsinki. Photo: dpa

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, asked about the comments by journalists, said that “this has been talked about many times” and President Vladimir Putin has issued an order on “reinforcing our Western flank” due to Nato’s growing military potential.

Asked if this reinforcement would include nuclear weapons, Peskov said: “I cannot say … There will be a whole list of measures, necessary steps. This will be covered at a separate meeting by the president.”

Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine have sparked a dramatic U-turn in public and political opinion in both Finland and Sweden over long-held policies of military non-alignment.

Finland said this week it will decide whether to apply for Nato membership within weeks and Sweden is also discussing membership.

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Finnish Prime Minister Marin meets with Swedish Prime Minister in Stockholm

Finnish Government Communications Department   

Publication date13.4.2022 

 PRESS RELEASE 249/2022

Prime Minister Sanna Marin met with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson in Stockholm on Wednesday 13 April. The prime ministers discussed how to strengthen the security of Finland and Sweden in the changed security environment. The security situation in Europe has changed fundamentally following Russia’s attack on Ukraine.

In their discussions, the prime ministers highlighted the fact that Finland and Sweden share the same security environment and that the countries’ security solutions affect one another. Both Finland and Sweden are now working to ensure the security of their citizens over the short and long term. 

Prime Minister Marin told Prime Minister Andersson about the report on changes in the current security environment, which the Finnish Government submitted to Parliament on the day of the visit.  The report includes an assessment of how Finland can strengthen its national defence capability and develop international defence cooperation with its partners, the closest of which is Sweden. The report also assesses the effects of possible NATO membership.
  
“Parliament must assess what kind of security Finland’s potential NATO membership would offer. We must be very open to all of the consequences and risks involved. There are risks over both the short and long term. There are risks if we apply for membership and if we do not,” Prime Minister Marin said.   

In their meeting, the prime ministers also assessed the prospects for exerting influence on Russia through national and EU-level measures, the most important of which are the sanctions imposed by the EU on Russia. Finland and Sweden are supporting Ukraine and the Ukrainians in their fight in many ways, including by supplying weapons to the Ukrainian army. The EU is currently considering stepping up its support, including through military assistance. 
 
Prime Minister Marin meets with Swedish Prime Minister in Stockholm (valtioneuvosto.fi) 

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