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Libyan Presidential Election Postponed Until Politicians Agree on a New Date, Instead of December 24, 2021

December 23, 2021

 

Libyan presidential candidates in Benghazi, December 22, 2021

 

Ten former antagonists, now presidential candidates, including Hafter, Bashagha and Maetig gather in Benghazi

By Sami Zaptia.

Libya Herald, London, 22 December 2021:

Ten former antagonists, now presidential candidates, met in Benghazi yesterday. The ten were:

Khalifa Haftar, Fathi Bashagha, Ahmed Maiteg, Aref Nayed, Abdelmajeed Saif, Al-Nasr Sharif, Al-Wafi Othman, Abdul-Majid Ashur, Shuwail Mohamed Al-Muntasser, and Fadeel Lamin.

In a very conciliatory statement on their behalf read out by Fathi Bashagha, the ten agreed on three vague and general points.

1-That the national interest is above all

2-That national reconciliation is a national choice

3-And that they would continue the national initiative to unit Libyans

The meeting had already anticipated ahead of the official HNEC announcement that the elections would not take place on 24 December this year. Its aim was to anticipate what would, could and should happen post-24 December.

Reports have said that the ten discussed the creation of a new government to take over from the Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba’s Government of National Unity. The ten in effect represent an anti-Aldabaiba front.

Disquiet in western Libya – and especially Misrata

The meeting with Hafter has caused much disquiet in Western Libya. Memories are still fresh in Tripoli of Hafter’s bombing of Tripoli and the carnage he caused. The booby traps, landmines unexploded ordinance that his forces had left in residential areas has not been forgotten.

Misratan forces were very much at the centre of the war effort against Hafter, and in the city, Bashagha and Maetig, who both hail from Misrata, have been lambasted as traitors and judas.

Politicians have no principles?

Friends and family members of those who had lost their lives in the anti-Hafter war effort have wondered loud as to why those they love had sacrificed their lives. Social media has been full of warning to citizens not to be duped into fighting another so-called principled war by these political leaders who clearly have none.

Ten former antagonists, now presidential candidates, including Hafter, Bashagha and Maetig gather in Benghazi | (libyaherald.com)

HoR creates committee for a new post-24 December 2021 roadmap

By Sami Zaptia.

(Logo: HoR).

London, 22 December 2021:

With Libya’s 24 December 2021 now postponed, today, the Presidency of the House of Representatives (HoR) issued a decision (13/2021) to form a 10-member committee to work on preparing a proposal for a post-24 December 2021 roadmap.

The House of Representatives demanded the committee submit its report to the office of the Presidency within a week to present it to the floor of the House during its next session.

The decision was unsigned by any of the three heads of the HoR.

Ageela Saleh’s temporary withdrawal from the HoR

It is also unclear what is going to happen with regards HoR head Ageela Saleh. Saleh is standing as a candidate in the presidential elections and as such he had stepped down temporarily as Speaker, handing over the role to his two Deputies.

It is unclear whether Saleh will return to his role, assuming that the elections are in effect cancelled or whether he will remain at a distance until a new election date is set. If an election date is set for March next year, for example, it will mean that while Saleh can continue to pull HoR strings in the background, he will not be able to influence live proceedings on the floor.

This slight change of dynamic may influence how the HoR may operate over the next few months and may affect its outcomes and specifically the new election law. It was Saleh, it will be recalled, that ‘‘passed’’ out of office without referring its final version to the HoR floor.

UNSMIL warns that political tensions should be resolved through dialogue

By Sami Zaptia.

London, 22 December 2021:

UNSMIL warned yesterday that political tensions in Libya should be resolved through dialogue. This came after state recognized but not controlled military groups (militias) started to build up on the outskirts of Tripoli with other forces conducting manoeuvres in Misrata and Zawia.

The tensions were caused by the approach of the planned election day of 24 December 2021 and the likelihood that elections would be postponed or cancelled. They have since been postponed until 24 January next year – an unlikely date given Libya’s past political history.

The militias had gathered for two main opposing reasons. One set was in support of the elections and against the Aldabaiba Government of National Unity continuing in office. The other were opposed to elections and wanted the Aldabaiba government to continue in office.

UNSMIL had said it was ‘‘concerned about the unfolding security situation in Tripoli. The current mobilization of forces affiliated with different groups creates tensions and increases the risk of clashes that could spiral into conflict. Any disagreements on emerging political or military matters should be resolved through dialogue, particularly at this stage when the country is navigating through a difficult and complex electoral process that should usher in a peaceful transition.

The developments in Tripoli do not bode well for the ongoing efforts to maintain stability and establish security and political conditions conducive to peaceful, credible, inclusive, free, and fair elections. They also could undermine the security gains Libya has so far realized which gave confidence to high-level officials from around the world to come to Tripoli to participate in the very successful Libya Stabilization Conference in October.

The Mission calls on all Libyan actors to exercise restraint at this delicate moment and to work together to create a security and political atmosphere that preserves Libya’s progress and enables peaceful elections and a successful transition. The Special Adviser of the Secretary-General on Libya, Ms. Stephanie Williams, is currently engaging Libyan stakeholders to facilitate the achievement of this goal.’’

UNSMIL warns that political tensions should be resolved through dialogue | (libyaherald.com)

HNEC proposes postponement of Libya’s elections until 24 January 2022 – blames ambiguous election law

By Sami Zaptia.

Two days out, HNEC has proposed that parliament postpone Libya’s 24 December 2021 elections to 24 January 2022 (Logo: Libya Herald).

London, 22 December 2021:

After weeks if not months of passing the buck, Libya’s High National Elections Commission (HNEC) has announced today that it ‘‘proposes’’ that Libya’s parliament (the House of Representatives – HoR) postpones the countries planned 24 December 2021 elections until next year.

In effect, it is announcing two days away from the election date that the elections are not going to go ahead. HNEC is proposing the 24 January 2022 as the new date.

HNEC is only proposing that the HoR postpones the elections as it insists that it is not within its powers to decide on the election date. It feels that it is the HoR that decided when the elections should be held and that it is the HoR that has the political authority to postpone them. HNEC sees itself as a technocratic, apolitical body implementing the election law enacted by the HoR.

Appeals process to blame

In its announcement today, HNEC blamed the appeals process for the postponement of the elections. It said ‘‘The stage of (the appeals) constituted a dangerous turning point in the course of the electoral process, and it was the stop at which everyone’s efforts to achieve this historic and responsible entitlement (the elections) were due to considerations that were not within the reach of those in charge of it (HNEC).

HNEC said the most prominent of the reasons for the delay were ‘‘The inadequacy of electoral legislation with regard to the judiciary’s role in electoral appeals and disputes, which negatively affected the right of HNEC to defend its decisions, and created a state of uncertainty that the HNEC’s decisions were right with regard to its exclusion of a number of candidates who did not meet the conditions.’’

It said that ‘‘the overlap existing between the political reality and the issued judicial rulings pushed the decision to announce the final list of the candidates to what is known as the case of ‘‘force majeure’’, which led to HNEC’s inability to announce it and consequently its inability to set 24 December as the day for voting despite its full technical readiness to complete the operation on the mentioned date.’’

HoR Elections Committee calls on Ageela Salaeh to resume his role as Speaker

Meanwhile, the HoR Election Committee formed by the HoR to communicate and follow up with HNEC and the Supreme Judicial Council (SJC) has invited Ageela Saleh to resume his role as Speaker of the HoR in order to oversee a new political roadmap and presumably a new election date.

Analysis

There will now probably ensue a public round of the blame game as the HoR and HNEC attempt to to make the other the baddie in the postponement of the 24 December elections.

Critics will say HNEC head Emad Al-Sayeh should have done more publicly in blaming the HoR head Ageela Saleh and the HoR for their poor election law. Sayeh should have called Saleh out earlier and more forcibly. He shoud have spelled it out: the election law won’t work.

Did Saleh design the election law to fail?

But the most blame should be apportioned to Saleh. He had handcrafted the election law in his smoke-filled rooms without allowing the floor of the HoR to discuss the final draft presented by the Committee.

Saleh’s critics say that was his plan all along. They claim Saleh knows in his heart of hearts that he may not be re-elected to parliament and that he will almost certainly not be re-elected as its head. The status quo and avoidance of elections is Saleh’s natural choice. The red herring to many was that Saleh stood as a candidate in the presidential elections. This was a good distraction, giving the impression that he wanted the elections to go ahead.

The hope is that the international community does not fall for Saleh’s tricks again in the next efforts to get the elections back on track.

Is the 24 January 2022 a realistic election date?

HNEC is probably being political if not disingenuous by proposing the 24 January. It knows that Ageela Saleh and all the pro-status quo forces who seek to avoid elections will stretch out the process of agreeing a new election date. If things move relatively smoothly even 24 February would be unrealistic. The 24 March is a much better bet – and an optimistic one at that too.

What needs to happen next?

For elections to go ahead now there must be a clear election law. The HoR needs to either enact a new law or amend the current law – with a change of date. This new law must clearly delineate the powers and authority of HNEC and the Supreme Judicial Council/courts.

There must be no ambiguity in the interpretation of the electoral law. The two must not step on each other’s toes and HNEC’s authority must not be undermined by the courts. The electoral law had set a list of criteria and HNEC had disqualified several candidates.

These included Saif Qaddafi (still wanted by the International Criminal Court) and Prime Minister of the Libyan Government of National Unity, Abd Alhamid Aldabaiba. There were questions regarding the accuracy of some of the information provided by the later in his application form.

The new election law should spell out its criteria even more clearly.

Political leverage and pressure by international community

For this to happen there needs to be another merry-go-round of visits, meetings and photo opportunities by world leaders, ambassadors and above all the effective head of UNSMIL, Stephanie Williams.

The international community must coerce the status quo Libyan stakeholders who are resisting the holding of elections – including a bloc in the HoR led by Ageela Saleh – to stop playing at holding elections and actually allow fair and transparent elections to go ahead.

HNEC proposes postponement of Libya’s elections until 24 January 2022 – blames ambiguous election law | (libyaherald.com)

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Libya’s elections are on December 24. But should they be postponed?

By Karim Mezran

Minbar Libya, December 22, 2021

Presidential and possibly parliamentary elections in Libya are forthcoming. Set for December 24, the elections are stirring widespread debate among policymakers and experts alike.

The question is whether holding them now represents the best path forward for the country, or whether postponing them indefinitely does. While electing representative governments may seem to be the most effective way to achieve greater freedom to many Western democracies, there are reasons to believe that holding elections in Libya now may create more violence after a decade of civil war.

The context

The 2011 Arab Uprisings, which began in neighboring Tunisia, led to the ousting of longtime Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, plummeting the country into chaos and widespread violence. Since then, Libya, after a NATO intervention in 2011, underwent major civil strife and witnessed polarizing divisions between the east and west of the country that rendered it a de facto failed state. The east has been under the control of warlord General Khalifa Haftar while the United Nations (UN) has struggled to establish a UN-supported government, known as the Government of National Unity (GNU), that had control over the entire country as mandated by the UN Security Council in 2014.

Following Haftar’s 2019 military attempt to take over Tripoli—and thus gain control over the country—the UN Support Mission for Libya declared a ceasefire agreement between the West’s Government of National Accord (GNA) and Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA), which was accepted and implemented on August 21, 2020 by the two rival parties. This long-awaited agreement established a consensus between the UN, GNA, and LNA to create a political track for elections in 2021. Those elections could be just around the corner.

The debate

The International Conference for Libya, a ministerial-level summit, was held in Paris on November 12 to discuss the upcoming elections. It was attended by Western and Middle Eastern leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, then German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and US Vice President Kamala Harris. The consensus was that the Libyan elections must run their due course on December 24. Vice President Harris co-signed a joint statement made by the summit’s participants and endorsed by the UN, which stated that it was vital “for all Libyan stakeholders to commit unequivocally to the holding of free, fair, inclusive, and credible presidential and parliamentary elections” on December 24 .  

It is evident that the United States wants a credible government in Libya and that this would be best achieved through free and fair elections. Additionally, the US appears eager to back a future Libyan government, as this will give the Joe Biden administration the means to counter an estimated two thousand Russian mercenaries, which have backed Haftar throughout the civil war. Further emphasis on the necessity to back a government capable of expelling foreign mercenaries was expressed by France’s president, who said that “Turkey and Russia must withdraw without delay their mercenaries.” The US and France seem to agree that once an official government is elected, Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group will be compelled to leave Libya.

However, not all international parties agree that holding elections this month is a wise decision. Human Rights Watch (HRW), a human rights-focused international non-governmental organization, has expressed its concerns over intimidation and coercive tactics, which it believes armed groups in Libya are using to sway the vote. HRW is also distrustful that Libyan authorities will commit to holding foreign fighters accountable for the atrocities committed during the past decade of civil unrest.

Several think tank experts are also wary that these elections may prove more detrimental than beneficial. Benjamin Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, calls for “postponing the elections for a certain period until several critical issues are resolved.” He argues that a return to civil war is far more likely if elections are held on the planned date. Tarek Megerisi, a North Africa specialist at the European Council on Foreign Relations, criticizes the international community’s stance on the matter, citing that world leaders favor going to the polls instead of backing a fair “process.”

As it stands, the electoral process shows far too many cracks, as it hinges on a constitution that is rejected by many. Approved in 2017 by the Constitutional Drafting Assembly, it was rejected by the House of Representatives, the Tobruk-based internationally-recognized parliament in the east, and also created large disappointment among the many minority groups present in the country, who did not feel included in the drafting process. More significantly, it’s unclear whether both presidential and parliamentary elections will be held on the same day. Finally, the presidential candidates list is proving to be a problem itself.

The candidates

An important argument also raised by those who oppose holding elections at this time focuses on a disconcerting list of presidential candidates. Not only is it a gargantuan list comprising of nighty-eight potential candidates, it also holds at the very top some of the most controversial people in Libya. Among the top front-runners is General Haftar, who is accused of gross human rights violations and considered a war criminal, especially by western Libyans. Then there is Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, the son and “dauphin” of the overthrown Libyan dictator, whose candidacy makes a mockery of the 2011 NATO-led intervention and the successive arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court, which accuses him of committing crimes against humanity.

Although Libya’s electoral committee had initially disqualified Saif al-Islam’s candidacy in November, he was later reinstated after a court of appeals in the southwest of the country overturned the decision. Last but not least, the current interim Prime Minister, Abdulhamid Dbeibah, who upon his February nomination of the UN-led GNU, pledged not to run as a candidate—is now running for election.

Despite these poignant arguments, the European Union, United Nations, and United States still believe that it is vital that the elections are held on December 24 or shortly thereafter to resolve some of the many technical difficulties, such as the lack of a constitution. Without strong popular engagement, there can be no official authority with enough legitimacy to rule over Libya. However, those in favor of holding the elections sooner rather than later might do well to consider all the arguments for postponing them.

Karim Mezran is director of the North Africa Initiative and resident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council.

Libya’s elections are on December 24. But should they be postponed? – Libya Tribune (minbarlibya.org)

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