By Paul Tait Paul Tait – Thu Sep 10, 2009, 9:09 am ET

SINGAPORE (Reuters) –

The Taliban have a significant presence in almost every corner of Afghanistan, data from a policy think tank showed on Thursday, as the country lurches into political uncertainty after a disputed presidential election.

A political standoff has deepened since the August 20 poll, with President Hamid Karzai defending the ballot as honest but a U.N.-backed election watchdog invalidating some votes and ordering a partial recount amid widespread accusations of fraud.

The uncertainty coincides with the most violent period since the Taliban were toppled by U.S.-backed Afghan forces in 2001, with record military and civilian deaths testing the resolve of U.S. and European leaders.

The election, initially hailed a success after the Taliban failed to disrupt it, has since become a major headache for Washington and a test of President Barack Obama's new regional strategy to defeat the militants and stabilize Afghanistan.

A security map by policy research group the International Council on Security and Development (ICOS) however showed a deepening security crisis with substantial Taliban activity in at least 97 percent of the country.

The ICOS data, obtained by Reuters before its release on Thursday, painted an even darker picture than an Afghan government map last month that showed almost half of Afghanistan at either a high risk of attack or under "enemy control."

Based on reports of an average of one or more insurgent attacks a week since January 2009, it showed heavy Taliban activity across 80 percent of Afghanistan. A substantial Taliban presence -- one or more attacks per month -- was seen in another 17 percent of the country.

"DRAMATIC INCREASE"

A similar map released by ICOS researchers in Afghanistan late last year noted a permanent Taliban presence in 72 percent of the country and a substantial presence in another 21 percent.

In the most significant difference to previous security assessments, the latest ICOS map shows a heavy increase in areas of the north previously regarded as relatively safe such as Balkh and Kunduz provinces.

The Afghan government map, drawn up with the help of the United Nations and dated four months before the election, showed large areas of the north as either low- or medium-risk areas.

"Across the north of Afghanistan, there has been a dramatic increase in the rate of insurgent attacks against international, Afghan government, and civilian targets," said ICOS policy analyst Alexander Jackson.

A NATO air strike in a Taliban-controlled area of Kunduz killed scores of people this month, angering many Afghans and adding to tensions between Kabul and Western countries with troops in Afghanistan.

The Taliban-led insurgency has grown this year out of traditional strongholds in the south and east and has even hit the capital, Kabul. Violence escalated further before the poll.

U.S. officials are debating whether to send even more troops to Afghanistan but uncertainty over the election results and accusations that Karzai's camp has been involved in widespread fraud have made relations even icier.

Preliminary results from about 92 percent of polling stations show Karzai has passed the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a second-round run-off against his main rival, former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah.

Abdullah has warned a fraudulent outcome "was a recipe for instability." A second round was due to be held on October 1 if needed, but that would now be almost impossible to stage before the onset of winter.

ICOS President Norine MacDonald said this meant a constitutional vacuum and "government paralysis" lasting months were possible.

(Editing by Alex Richardson)

Taliban Spreading In Afghanistan Despite U.S. Buildup

by Jackie Northam

NPR, September 10, 2009

The Taliban now has a permanent presence in virtually every area of Afghanistan, expanding its influence across the country despite the presence of tens of thousands of U.S. and NATO troops, according to an analysis based on daily reports of insurgent activity from January to September of this year.

The International Council on Security and Development, a London-based policy research group, released the study and a new security map Thursday that paints a grim picture of the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan. It shows a heavy or permanent Taliban presence in 80 percent of Afghanistan. The term "permanent" is defined as provinces that report an average of one or more insurgent attacks per week.

The group says the Taliban also has a "substantial" presence in an additional 17 percent of the country. That description is based on an average of one or more insurgent attacks per month and includes accounts from residents who believe the Taliban is active in the area.

"Eight years after the 9/11 attacks, the Taliban has returned to touch almost every corner of Afghanistan," said Alexander Jackson, a policy analyst who worked on the study.

In November 2007, the group determined that the Taliban had a permanent presence in just over half of Afghanistan. That number shot up to 72 percent in its next report issued in November 2008.

President Obama ordered an additional 21,000 troops to Afghanistan this year, raising the total number of U.S. forces there to about 64,000, in an effort to curb the resurgent Taliban.

August was the deadliest month of the war for U.S. forces since the conflict began in 2001, with 47 troops killed in Afghanistan, according to The Associated Press.

The ICSD report says the Taliban appears to be spreading out from traditional strongholds in the south and east of the country.

The most dramatic shift over the past few months has been the dissolving security situation in the north of Afghanistan, in provinces that have been relatively stable, such as Kunduz and Balkh. Over the past few months, there has been a dramatic increase in the number of attacks against international, Afghan government and civilian targets in these areas.

A map drawn up by the Afghan government and the United Nations and released earlier this year indicated many parts of northern Afghanistan were at low or medium risk for Taliban attacks. That map, produced in April in preparation for the Aug. 20 national elections, showed the biggest threat for violence in the traditional Taliban strongholds in southern Afghanistan.

The ICSD's findings come as election officials deal with the fallout from last month's presidential and provincial council elections. There are allegations of widespread fraud, and the U.N.-backed Electoral Complaints Commission has thrown out ballots from 83 polling stations and ordered recounts at hundreds of voting sites.