Arab News

WASHINGTON, 30 June 2003 — Will he or won’t he? That was the question looming over a Washington conference that featured Gamal Mubarak among its speakers.

The 39-year-old son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, on a panel with three others, deftly answered questions last week about his country’s reform efforts, Iraq and the Mideast peace process.

Only toward the end of the hour-long discussion did an audience member pose the question tantalizing US government officials and Mideast experts: Will he succeed his 75-year-old father, who has led the most important Arab state for the past 22 years?

Articulate, handsome and attuned to Western ways, the investment banker dodged the issue. “I’m pretty much satisfied with what I’m doing now,” Gamal Mubarak told the conference hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Whether he becomes Egypt’s next president holds more than passing interest for Washington. Egypt will have an important role in helping achieve President George W. Bush’s regional vision, including a stable Iraq and peace between Israel and the Palestinians.

The choice of Egypt’s next leader when President Mubarak’s fourth term expires in 2005 carries peril and promise. US officials are divided over the son’s possible appointment.

The Bush administration has advocated democratization in the post-Iraq war Arab world and support for un-elected dynastic succession in Egypt would be hard to justify.

On the other hand, democracy and elections could bring Islamists to power in Cairo, increasing the appeal to Washington of stability, even if undemocratic. Moreover, Mubarak has made a name for himself as a political and economic reformer and some say he could bridge Egypt’s repressive past and a more enlightened future.

Last week, his second visit to Washington since February, continued his “grooming and testing” for future leadership, experts said. Egypt’s delegation was headed by two government ministers and the senior political adviser to President Mubarak, thus deflecting some of the spotlight from Gamal Mubarak, head of the ruling party’s policy planning committee.

Mubarak and Egypt’s trade minister met on Friday with Vice President Dick Cheney, a significant official US reception. Mubarak is “remarkably polished for somebody who has not been campaigning for political office,” said Jon Alterman, director of CSIS’ Middle East program. “He comes across as thoughtful, moderate and decisive (and) as the kind of person one can do business with,” he added.

Former US ambassador Edward Walker, who heads the Middle East Institute, considers Mubarak “a very bright young man, somebody who has a very keen sense of where the country needs to go (and) who is well-respected by the business community.”

But, “his chance of succeeding his father is nil. He has no military background. ... It has been the case that the military makes the choice of the president and ... I don’t believe they will choose somebody who has no military credentials,” he said in a telephone interview.

Other experts are not so sure. Many dismissed the idea of Gamal succeeding his father when it first came up four years ago. But now, one US analyst said, “you see more people thinking it’s possible because Gamal has demonstrated a great capacity to be a leader. A lot of people say if Gamal was not a Mubarak, he would have a real good chance” to become president.

Although Egypt’s last three leaders came from the military, it is not certain that institution would block Gamal, said Diane Singerman, associate professor at American University.

The Americans have close ties to Egypt’s military and there are indications President Mubarak has “co-opted the military so they are not as much a force as they used to be,” she said.

It is not conclusive that President Mubarak wants his son to succeed him, but no other serious names have emerged and Egyptians are reluctant to raise any in case Gamal Mubarak’s appointment is a done deal, experts said.